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Fixed-limit also called just Limit is a type of betting structure for a poker game where the amount of all bets and raises in any given betting round is fixed. This is in contrast to pot-limit and no-limit betting. Most commonly, fixed-limit games have two bet sizescalled the small bet and the big bet. Such games are usually written as having limits of "small-slash-big". In Hold 'em and Omaha games, the big bet is usually twice the size of the small bet, though in other variants such as 7-Studit may be more.

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His firm is a leader in online education. Some people are invited so they can make money. She is close to Angela Merkel. As of , the Libra Group owns and operates 30 subsidiary companies around the world. He is close to Angela Merkel. He is a politician but he is in charge of German security for the Bilderberg meeting.

Another Silicon Valley firm. He is a Hindu from South Africa. He is a political-risk and communications consultant and visiting media fellow at the Carnegie Corporation's international peace and security program. He has been a senior advisor at the US. He has been researching the Internet and also America since Member of FDP. Bankers are on the prowl for traitors. She is a critic of Ron Paul and Obamacare.

She is supposed to be a Libertarian. Works for Bloomberg so she knows who the boss is. Media gets a lot of invites. The Economist urged Iraq to attack Iran 6 months before the war started. Son of a former PM. Used to work for Chase Bank before the merger. Lived a lot of his life in France and the US. Canadian economy is tanking. Mundie, Craig J. Mundie advocates that individuals be licensed before being allowed to use the Internet. Used to be part of Microsoft leadership. Murray, Charles A.

USA , W. Brady Scholar, American Enterprise Institute. He is famous for his works on the Bell Curve and the debate over his views on the Underclass. This is his second Bilderberg meeting. Bilderberg wants white America to die. Might be there to give insights about the Trump phenomenon. Netherlands, H. Forbes magazine did a puff piece and said his family only had million dollars. This is not credible for a family that ruled for years. His mother Queen Beatrix attended in the past.

Might be there to talk about Trump. She is media but has deep connections within the Republican party. But she has more insights into Trump than other writers. She said he is the spark and not the fire. Must have liked him because he is new to the Steering Committee. This woman sees the Rape Refugees as an opportunity to diversify.

First class idiot in economics. It got them past election day. The next Depression will hit them harder than the US. He edits a Turkish language edition of Foreign Affairs magazine. He is Turkish of Jewish origins. A big turnover in the Turkish participants but did not include him. Another new Member of the Steering Committee.

Titan cement is a large international company which is expanding into the US and eastern Europe. He also appeared at Davos and likes to talk in public. Petraeus, David H. Through R J Reynolds tobacco they launder money for drug dealers and spies.

Lots of mayors. Lots of people opposing Trump and Le Pen. A liberal leaning member of the ruling center-right party. He is a city planner but he is interested is designing an architecture that senses and responds or more simply talks back to us. Reisman, Heather M. Her husband, Gerry Schwartz, runs Onex, a leading venture capital firm. She and her husband switched from Liberal to Conservative over the Israel Lebanon war.

PM Harpers Chief of Staff used to work for her husband. Rubin, Robert E. Former Secretary of the Treasury. He was head of Citibank's private bank which launders drug money. They were unregulated and did not require the seller to set aside money to pay claims. All sales income could be paid out in bonuses allowing the taxpayer to foot the bill when it came due as it did in AIG. American taxpayers according to Obama will have to pay hundreds of trillions of dollars in CDS after the euro bonds collapse.

All four of those men are Jewish. No concern to them that a billion people at some future date will starve to death. He is a liberal and is in coalition with Labor. In , Rutte stated that Holocaust denial should no longer be illegal. He was a professional diplomat being neither a spy nor a warrior.

He is a Returning member. Another close ally of Angela Merkel. Bilderberg seems to be backing a lot of losing candidates and issues. He actually has sensible views on European integration. Proceed with 5 core nations and let the others follow along later. I am opposed to the EU. I have called it Rothschild land. He is something of an Austerity aficionado. One of the two main parties. They counted the mail votes and stole the election from Hofer, the 'nationalist'.

They gave the Presidency to an immigrant whose Green party made fun of native born Austrians. Schmidt, Eric E. They like to spy on the commoners. He is head of the Austrian Central Bank. It had too many eastern European bad debts. This man is not a professional banker. Former member of the Steering Committee. He is in his 70s.

Former professor. Promotes globalism at his forum. He made uncomplimentary comments about the US in a bugged conversation. He was in charge of the Oxford Debate club. He was a member of the Bullingdon group, a very despicable bunch.

David Cameron was a member. He worked at AEI while in America. They are pro-Globalist and supposedly conservative group. A big change in the Turkish delegation. He was born an ethnic Kurd. He also has British citizenship. He is no friend of the Kurdish people. He serves on the German Economics ministers advisory board. Things are not going well for the EU economy. Strong business background. Undergraduate degree from University of Oregon in the US. Thiel, Peter A. He is bringing in the younger crowd of high tech billionaires the CIA and NSA will need to end anonymity on the Internet and then close down free speech.

It should be noted that he is not an engineer. He is a lawyer and Stanford graduate. He worked as a derivatives trader and runs a Hedge Fund. He owned Thiel is a founder of PayPal which shuts down service to those who practice free speech on the Internet. He was an early investor in Facebook which legally should never had been offered as an IPO at anything above a dollar a share.

PayPal has been linked by John Cruz to money laundering. Member CDU. He refused to join Alternative for Germany. Bilderberg is backing losers. His lab's current research is mathematical signal processing, that is, the set of tools and algorithms from applied harmonic analysis that are central to signal processing.

These include representations for signals Fourier, wavelets, frames , sampling theory, and sparse representations. He is chairman of an insurance company and a bank holding company. He is a Leftist. He is a member of the famous Wallenberg family which was Jewish at one time. He is a Director of several banks and of Coca-Cola. She was the first woman ever to serve on the German chancellor's council of economic advisers, known as the 'wise me' In addition to advising governments, she is on the boards of Swiss bank UBS AG and drugmaker Roche Holding AG, while holding a professorship at the University of Mainz in Germany, where she has taught since She won a bet with Nouriel Roubini on Greece.

She said they would not leave the euro. Wolf, Martin H. He is the favorite writer of billionaires all over the world. He is a committed Globalist. And he is Jewish. As a young man, he worried about the economic conditions of the s that created the war. He should read my essays which give solutions other than more debts and more spending to solve our current crisis.

Zoellick, Robert B. Open navigation menu. Close suggestions Search Search. Skip carousel. Carousel Previous. Carousel Next. What is Scribd? Uploaded by Parain. Document Information click to expand document information Description: The Bilderberg Club boasts not quiet with having future sizes of politics and business previously 'recognized and encouraged' at Bilderberg meetings. For the first time, the conference was organized in the time of May at the invitation of Nazi Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands who owned the Hotel de Bilderberg in Oosterbeek in the Netherlands, the name was taken from the first Bilderberg meeting.

Even then it came to geopolitics, economy, society and nothing less than the order of the world - so globalization and centralization. The Bilderberg meetings are informal private meetings of which the taxpayer is to carry the burdens of security and organization, transportation and wellbeing in luxury of influential people in business, military, politics, the media, universities and nobility, revealing next to zero since then. Decisions or agreements, will not be published.

What we but have are the names on the official invitation list of Club Bilderberg. This does not mean the list is comprehensive. Other invitees may attend as well who are not on the official list, published by bilderbergmeetings.

Date uploaded Jun 09, Did you find this document useful? Is this content inappropriate? Report this Document. Description: The Bilderberg Club boasts not quiet with having future sizes of politics and business previously 'recognized and encouraged' at Bilderberg meetings. Copyright: Public Domain. Flag for inappropriate content. Download now. For Later. Related titles. Carousel Previous Carousel Next.

Jump to Page. Search inside document. Related Interests Banking Business. Brian Mitchell. Anonymous eHkhhfL06L. Doug Mataconis. Hairton Costa. Rick Aiello. Jonathan Raymond. Joe Smith. Virgo Starlight. More From Parain. Plants in the Wheel of the Year - July and August. Popular in Politics.

Sunil Chowdary. Rose Ann. Megha Surana. Anmol D'xharma. Maryam Raza. Luhan Rina. Ulkrisht Sidharthan. May Anne Barlis. Pretty Praveen. Billa Manoj. Paola Virata. Business Daily Zimbabwe. Leon Guerrero. Joni Prudentino Cruz. Rocket singh Salesan of the year roll no. Mrunal Waghchaure. Copper surged 4. Gold climbed as traders speculated on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when policy makers meet next month.

Bullion rose 0. Oil was little changed after three days of gains. In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed losses to advance 0. Trump has pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and curb illegal immigration by building a wall along the U.

The yuan slipped to a six-year low amid concern Chinese exports will also suffer. On today's calendar, one event worth highlighting though and which could be interesting now is the scheduled 30y Treasury auction this evening. In the midst of the hugely volatile moves yesterday, the 10y auction was reported as the weakest, based on the bid to cover ratio of 2. Away from that, the data docket today contains France wage data and IP this morning followed by initial jobless claims and the October Monthly Budget Statement across the pond this afternoon.

To expand further on what I was discussing in yesterday's EMR after Trump and the Republican's clean electoral sweep, I must say that this is the most positive I've felt on the medium-term prospects for US growth for perhaps a decade. As a 'secular stagnationist' this is as much a relative and a nominal GDP story as it is an absolute and real GDP view but at least we'll likely to see a change in policy.

Policy should now be skewed towards reflation at a fiscal level. However as a caveat the outcome is probably also potentially dangerous for growth as a Trump presidency has more risk of going spectacularly wrong than most others given his inconsistent approach to policy in the lead up to the election and his total lack of political experience.

There was a great quote on Bloomberg last night from Sarah Binder - a political science professor at George Washington University - who said that "In every conversation I have about a President Trump there is an asterisk of unpredictability".

This certainly rings true. There are still some doubts as to whether he has his party fully behind him although the clean sweep may mean Republicans are happy to loosen the purse strings now they are in full control and can get the credit regardless of any doubts over Trump. The other problem with Trump are his international views migration, trade and we stand by our September long-term study view that Globalisation is going to be in full retreat over the years ahead which has longer-term global growth and stability risks.

The link to "An Ever Changing World" where we articulated our view of the turn in the super cycle meaning higher yields, higher inflation, more fiscal spending and less globalisation is at the end of today's piece. Back to Trump, he also has non-economic policies that could be divisive if he follows through on his campaign rhetoric. So a leap into the unknown in some respects.

I would stress that Trump will likely need the Fed over the years ahead though and he's not been their biggest fan. A persistent unfunded fiscal deficit could push yields up to levels that the debt ladened global economy would find overly negative. For expansionary fiscal policy to work in a world of heavy debt I do think you need a central bank willing or forced to buy government bonds. If not what's the incentive for the bond market to buy into an unfunded reflation boost.

So we could see a strange situation in where the US is pursuing big expansionary fiscal policy but with no QE whereas Europe will continue to do big QE but without notable fiscal expansion. So yesterday's What the Fed looks like in 18 months is also a big question. The Republicans and Trump have been very keen to clip their wings and the spectre of them becoming less independent - perhaps after Yellen's term ends in - must surely be a possibility.

Anyway we are writing our outlook at the moment and obviously this result is making us stress test our views for the next year or so. Any thoughts welcome from our readers on what this victory means. We reserve the right to change our mind on things by the time the outlook is out but this certainly shakes things up for ! We discussed yesterday that we thought the result would initially bring risk-off followed by a reversal as the positive fiscal prospects would come into view.

Trump's conciliatory acceptance speech was probably the main catalyst. That daily range is the highest since August although if we look at the magnitude of the selloff in percentage terms Volatility at its finest. Staying with rates, the Treasury curve steepened aggressively with the 2y30y spread widening In Europe the moves for sovereign bond markets, while still weaker, were slightly less spectacular.

That was a 1. Over in equity markets the incredible turnaround was more evident in the US futures market given Trump fears peaked early in the Asia session. Dow futures swung in a 1, point range after initially plummeting points before then swinging to a point gain. The high-to-low was 2. Credit was much the same. In Europe indices ended little changed with Main swinging in a 5bps range Xover swinging in a 20bp range. The other markets to highlight were commodities and currencies.

Finally in currency markets the standout was the Mexican Peso which at one stage was The Swiss Franc finished Credit markets have made a similar turnaround while US equity index futures are little changed in the early going. Needless to say miners have had a very strong morning. The infrastructure story is kicking in.

Meanwhile, away from the market moves, the remaining newsflow has been largely consigned to watching the political response globally. With trade negotiations at the forefront of debate now, Canada Ambassador David MacNaughton said that Canada is willing to entertain reopening the NAFTA agreement to potential changes should the President-elect want to.

The Ambassador also suggested that he expects bilateral trade between the two countries to remain strong. The founder of the populist 5SM in Italy also highlighted similarities between the result and movements in Italy. In Europe the Bank of France business sentiment reading for October was unchanged at Finally in the UK the trade balance widened further in September. The European Commission also released their latest economic forecasts, cutting Euro area growth expectations to 1.

One event worth highlighting though and which could be interesting now is the scheduled 30y Treasury auction this evening. The challenges facing Germany's second-largest shipping lender, German Landersbank NordLB first emerged this summer, when we reported that the bank was considering taking full control of its smaller, distressed peer, Bremer Landesbank BLB , which was struggling under the weight of a portfolio of bad shipping loans in what effectively constituted a state-backed bailout.

As Germany's Handelsblatt wrote back in July, "shipping loans have brought Bremer LB into distress and the bank can not survive without government help, but a direct capital injection from Lower Saxony now looks unlikey.

The situation was ultimately "resolved", when NordLB said in September that it would take full control of Bremer Landesbank the transaction is expected to close in January 1 , with BLB's balance sheet being absorbed by that of its bigger Landesbank peer, however it also meant that NordLB would wind up holding even more impaired shipping loans. That also applies after taking into account the negative result for , and the complete takeover of Bremer Landesbank.

The huge write-downs it takes this year pave the way for the planned reduction of its shipping loan book, the bank said. It means that loan accelerations, foreclosures and portfolio sales will not have to cause the bank any more losses, so its restructuring and workout teams can act more flexibly. Meanwhile, as IHS notes , the financial situation at the acquired Bremer Landesbank has become so dramatic that it will have to be fully integrated into Nord LB through signing of a controlling agreement probably at the end of next week.

As explained previously, while in previous years when commodity prices were surging, German bank lending to the shipping industry was a major profit center for many German banks, ever since the financial crisis, and especially following the recent commodity bust, German banks suffered huge losses, as the global shipping industry buckled under the weight of chronic overcapacity, mistimed investments and cooling growth in China.

Case in point, the recent unprecedented bankruptcy of South Korean logistics and container transport company Hanjin, whose bankruptcy in the late summer shocked the peace within global supply logistics. Port of Hamburg. And now that we have a benchmark for just how severe shipping loan deterioration currently is, we wonder just how impaired the loan book at that "other" German lender, Deutsche Bank is. It makes commercial sense to try and sell off some of their book," one finance source said.

One wonders at what "Mark to Model" value the Frankfurt-based bank is keeping these loans on its books? Confirming media rumors that in addition to the ongoing battle between Romney and Giulianni for the position of Secretary of State, which had led to media fallout implicating Trump media aide Kellyanne Conway who allegedly " went rogue " by bashing Romney on Twitter and on the TV circuit over the weekend, Bloomberg reports that Trump is set to meet with General David Petraeus, whom he is now considering for the position of secretary of state.

As a reminder, the four-star general left government under a cloud for sharing classified documents during an extramarital affair. The Senate had voted to confirm him for that post. He resigned from the CIA in November and avoided a criminal trial by agreeing to a plea deal in April Before the scandal, Petraeus was lauded as one of the most brilliant generals of his generation and the go-to choice of presidents George W. Bush and Obama. Bush tapped him in to lead the surge of 21, U. He revamped U.

The new strategy was credited with reducing violence in the country and sparing the U. Still, it is unclear how such an appointment would resonate with Trump's core support base. White House press secretary Josh Earnest noted his record of service in justifying the decision to still rely on his counsel despite the scandal. Last week, in an interview with the BBC, Petraeus had said he would serve in the Trump administration if asked by the president-elect.

That said, the former general had also clashed with Obama before the president took office. Submitted by Dave Collum via PeakProsperity,. I never would have believed it—not in a million years—but it happened: the Cubs won the World Series, and The Donald is our new president.

Why write this beast? For me, it puts the seemingly disconnected events that pass through my consciousness, soon to be lost forever, into a more organized and durable form. Somebody said I should write a book. I just did. In a nutshell, this is a story of human follies and bizarre events. There are always plenty of those. Let others tell the feel-good stories. I try to identify themes that evolve.

I struggled to detect the signals through the noise. Many of my favorite analysts from whom I extract wisdom and pinch cool ideas spent the year trying to convince the world that one or more of the presidential candidates was an unspeakable wretch. I was groping for a metaphor to capture our shared experiences, rummaging through Quentin Tarantino scripts and Hieronymus Bosch landscapes for inspiration.

Then it clicked. For us, it was the presidential election, which created a global mind-purging brain enema. The horror! Wrong movie. I knew in January that by mid-November we would be unified by our collective distrust of the Leader of the Free World, who would be surrounded by a dozen chalk outlines corresponding to political corpses that nobody wished to resurrect.

I have done my best to not marinate you—too much—in tales of sociopathic felons or stumpy-fingered, combed-over letches. I do, however, eventually enter the Swamp. By way of introduction, my lack of credentials—I am an organic chemist—has not precluded cameos in the Wall Street Journal, 4 the Guardian, 5 Russia Today , 6,7,8 a plethora of podcasts, 1 and even a couple investment conference talks.

One of the high-water marks was sharing the spotlight with Mark Cuban in a Wall Street Journal article by Ben Eisen on nouveau gold buggery: Podcasts in included Wall St. This is a huge deficiency that all of you must work on correcting. Footnotes appear as superscripts with hyperlinks in the Links section.

The whole beast can be downloaded as a single PDF xxhere or viewed in parts via the linked contents as follows:. For historical reasons, the review begins with a survey of my perennial efforts to fight the Fed. I am a fan of the Austrian business cycle theory and remain hunkered down in a cash-rich and hard-asset-laden Bunker of Doom portfolio. The bulk of the review, however, is really not about bulls versus bears but rather human folly. The links are as comprehensive as time allows.

I try to avoid themes covered amply in previous reviews. Some topics resolve themselves. Actually, none ever do, but they do get boring after a while. Others reappear with little warning. Owing largely to central banking largesse, the system is so displaced from equilibrium that something simply has to give, but I say that every year. We seem to remain on the cusp of a recession and the third, and hopefully final, leg of a secular bear market that began in Overt interventions have kept the walking dead walking.

One of my favorite gurus reminds us of a subtle linguistic distinction:. They are not all great, but my limited bandwidth demands selectivity. They are all nonfiction to varying degrees. With some notable exceptions, the mainstream media has degenerated into a steaming heap of detritus that is so bad now that it gets its own section.

A congenital infobesity has morphed into late-stage disinfobesity. Enter social media—the fever swamp—to fill the void. As we shall see, however, all is not well there either. I sift and pan, looking for shiny nuggets of content that reach the high standards of a rant. Every year I shout out to conspiracy theorists around the world.

I am not talking about abductions by almond-eyed aliens with weaponized anal probes which really hurt, I hasten to add but rather the simple notion that sociopathic men and women of wealth and power conspire. Folks who could get through without realizing this are imbeciles. I am talking totally blithering idiots. Markets are rigged. Government stats are cooked. Interest rates are set by fiat. Polls are skewed. E-mails are destroyed.

Cover-ups abound. Everybody has an agenda. It does to me, but I am susceptible to such dietrologie. Their desire for the world to be normal is an oddly child-like cognitive dissonance. Nobody is making you squander your time on a socially marginal tome of questionable merit. Better yet, seek professional help. Read that over and over until you understand it.

Changes in my portfolio were more abrupt than those from other years but still incremental. I resumed purchasing physical gold in after a decade-long hiatus. In , I bought aggressively in January the equivalent of half an annual salary and continued incremental buying throughout the year another half salary.

I am in no rush to alter the cash position. For a dozen years, I have been splitting my retirement contributions into equal portions cash and natural gas equities. My approximate positions are as follows:. The smart guys hedge fund managers continue to underperform, which means the dumb money must be overachieving blind nuts finding squirrels. This is never a good sign. Before you start brain shaming me, that same cash buffer precluded serious percentage losses during the hard-asset beatings in the preceding years.

The most disappointing feature of the year was in the category of personal savings. I have managed net savings every year, including those that included paying for college educations. This year, however, began poorly when my gold dealer got robbed and lost my gold. My losses paled in comparison to his; he committed suicide. I discovered maintenance needs on my house that got really outta control, and a boomerang adult child ended up costing me a bit.

Oh well, at least I have my health. Just kidding. I have a 4 centimeter aortic aneurysm, am pissing sand, and have mutated into Halfsquatch owing to congenital lymphedema Figure 3. I live-Tweeted a cystoscopy—likely a first for social media. I have to keep moving here to finish before I pass my expiration date. I remain a nervous secular precious metal bull and confident equity secular bear.

We return to all this in Broken Markets. Few will have cash because you have to go to cash at the top, and precious few have the capacity to shake recency bias and exit positions that have performed well. Just like a toaster, your sell order has only two settings: too soon and too late. My far greater concern is that bear markets are as much about time as they are about inflation-adjusted price. The Fed is determined to burn the clock.

Unemployment is at 4. The millennials are getting whacked by the boomers who refuse to die sorry, retire. Figure 4. Unemployment left; official stats in red; Shadowstats in blue and labor force participation rate right.

You can see it in the micro if you drill down. Deindustrialization has been occurring steadily since the late 90s. Factory orders and freight shipping Cass Freight Index have been dropping for two years. The economy is in the weakest post-recession recovery in half a century despite protestations to the contrary by Team Obama. Speaking of stimulus, what the hell went awry? The Feds drilled the rates to zero creating a ginormous bond bubble; vide infra to encourage consumers to do the one thing they cannot afford to do—consume.

Global central bankers have cut rates every 3 days since according to Grant Williams. The answer is simple and foreshadowed above: once you blow up a credit bubble, you cannot force consumers to spend. Have ya heard people talking about pulling equity out of their houses lately?

That numbnut idea proferred by the incoherent Alan Greenspan left consumers with the same houses and twice the debt while poverty-stricken old age looms large. How could the economists have been so wrong? I have a remarkably simple theory: their models are wrong. One could argue we have a secular economic problem. As a nation, we exploited cheap labor overseas through immigration during the 16th—20th centuries. The immigrants worked like dogs, got paid squat, and saved so furiously that it became a lot more than squat.

Thomas Sowell explains this brilliantly in his writings. They too worked like dogs, got paid squat, and saved furiously. Will new and improved trade policies solve our U. As long as there are folks overseas willing to work harder for less, we have some correcting left to do. With that said, I am a free-trade guy and particularly like the trade agreement painstakingly crafted by Mish Shedlock:.

How about some more Keynesianism? Paul: you have done more than enough. Here is Keynesianism I could live with. Government should spend as little as possible, but there are legitimate roles to be played. Imagine if governments at all levels would simply act like financially interested parties—as a collective, not as slovenly greedy, bribery-prone individuals—and buy necessary goods and services when they are cheap and stop buying when the private sector has bid them up. We would get maximum bang for the tax buck.

It would also quite naturally achieve the much ballyhooed counter-cyclicality. Whomever TheEuchre is, I think that is a provocative alternative theory of Fed motivation. In the absence of such a correction check and the absence of explosive growth check , we are still looking over the precipice check.

At these valuations, a few shanks at the start of the year were scary, but soon the markets entered the tightest day trading range 2. Even flash crashes raised only a few eyebrows. Knee-slappers elsewhere included a crash of the British pound in the forex markets in under a minute owing to Brexiteers 52 vide infra and a 6.

This was a short squeeze in conjunction with. It is suggested that central banks and programmed investing have pushed a wall of money at the markets. This credit-based splooge corresponds to debts to be paid back later, but who cares? I get a little confused as reported outflows in both equity funds and money market funds argue the contrary. Even these claims are confusing given that buyers necessarily match sellers; vide infra. And yet here too, there are worrying signs of what may become a breakdown.

Stock buybacks—in many cases leveraged stock buybacks—continue to levitate the markets. For those not paying attention, companies borrow money to buy back shares to prop up share prices, which serves the dual role of maximizing year-end bonuses and wards off balance sheet crises. Now my head hurts. There is some evidence that buybacks may be subsiding. There are instances of generic idiocy emblematic of deep problems. Eighty-five percent of traders on Wall Street have less than 15 years of experience.

Synthetic securitizations are returning. Some have suggested that retail investors should stay away from these and Fukushima. A managed futures fund was launched by a year-old kid who may not have made it to third base yet. Platinum Partners appears to have been running a Ponzi scheme.

In , I used that quote in a different context, but it is a great articulation of the Law of Conservation of Mass. Others such as Lance Roberts, 64 John Hussman, 65 Cliff Asness, 66 and Mish Shedlock 67 have dismembered putty-headed thinking underlying cash on the sidelines. However, there are pockets of holdouts mostly on CNBC who subscribe to the flow model. Here is the problem with the meme in a nutshell: If I buy, somebody must sell. Mutual funds insert middlemen to skim cash, but still no money is destroyed or created.

Breathless claims that money is flowing in or out of mutual funds sounds important, but where in this model is cash created or destroyed? The percentage of cash, however, is a huge issue. In a non-inflationary banking system, the cash is static.

Along comes legendary wise man John Bogle declaring equities reward risk taking, we should weight our portfolios , and the world agrees. Legendary raging bull Laszlo Birinyi, guided by recency bias, convinces the world stocks are great investments and suggests as the right allocation. We are just beginning to pull stupidity forward. Alas, The Bear appears before that can happen—it always does. The proximate trigger is not important. Spooked investors drop their allocations back to and, in the depths of despair, back to You will then scoop up cheap equities with inverted baggies from disembowled, toe-tagged investors who need cash.

We gave the gains all back. During this round trip, society collectively learned to make goods and provide services much more efficiently. The same amount of effort—the same amount of cash—corresponds to a much higher standard of living. This is good deflation, the kind that James Grant describes because he reads the dusty archives from bygone eras.

Most economists nowadays endorse low inflation that roughly matches productivity growth, which causes both the cash and the market cap equities to drift gently upward in a feel-good money illusion. Only if you believe the industrial revolution of the nineteenth and early twentieth century was disappointing. For the first half of the twentieth century, the DOW rose 1. However, the modern banking system is most definitely inflationary. Money is created by increased leverage of all kinds—sovereign debt, consumer debt, quantitative easing QE , and helicopter money all grow the money supply.

They grow the denominator cash in Figure 6, which is inflation. As inflation lifts equities, animal spirits take hold the Wealth Effect and lift them even more. We will go through the four stages of bullishness: Bogle-Birinyi-Siegel-God. The gains will be illusory because real wealth is manufactured, farmed, mined, and maybe programmed. Central bankers will always do something ; sitting on their hands or thumbs is unnatural.

When the markets de-lever, however, cash leaves the system. Business and investing models demanding inflation begin to break. This is bad deflation. It is harsh, abrupt, and dreaded by central bankers, because it is largely their doing. There seemed to be an epidemic of flatliners in the pharmaceutical industry requiring quarantine its own section.

The big one was Theranos, a company based on miraculously effective lab tests that turned out not to really work. Mylan was protected by government intervention when Teva was denied rights to make a competing product. The feds also mandated stocking EpiPens in all schools. Valeant Pharmaceuticals also reported big losses following big gains.

A drum beat to restrain pain meds is getting very loud. Chronic pain patients watch with angst. Oh, those bastards, right? Well, maybe not. Mylan has been dead money for 20 years—zero percent return ex-dividends and ex-inflation.

The same is true for Merck, Pfizer, Eli Lilly. I could go on. You should worry. Where are all the revenues going? Really expensive research and development. Better meds make the world a better place. The life expectancies of AIDS patients with treatment are now three years below those of their uninfected peers.

New-era cancer cures are off-the-charts effective. Pharma creates wealth in the purest sense and employs millions of people. On my consulting gigs, I can see researchers diligently trying to cure major diseases. Operationally, however, big-cap pharmas have been not-for-profit organizations for investors for several decades.

It is claimed rather convincingly that the per-unit cost of health care has not risen, but the volume has soared. Why is health care so cheap elsewhere? My son broke his foot while in Vietnam weeks ago. That is the essence of the rapidly growing medical tourism industry. How is that possible? The doctor in Vietnam is not wealthy and probably demands few material goods.

Torte reform is not needed because caveat emptor reigns. There might even be some Gates Foundation money thrown in. Most important, the profoundly expensive research and development was all done in developed countries and paid for by large revenue streams. Maybe I just called the bottom. Nailed it! That was the bottom. Despite weakness of late, the case for gold is now in place: European and Chinese banking risks, negative interest rates, a war on cash, and omnipresent risks of a hot war in the borderlands of the Middle East and Europe.

Estimates suggest 0. Because there is clearly a need to take some precautions against an unknowable future. I keep hearing from smart guys that gold is in short supply in the Comex or Shanghai gold exchange, you name it. These stories almost never play out. On long timescales, their assertion may be correct. What a year: I got as many electoral delegates as the bottom ten republican candidates combined , ate python, and own as much gold as the Central Bank of Canada.

Per the Bank of Canada, it finished selling off all of its gold, 78 probably to ensure that the U. You think I jest? Venezuela repatriated tons of gold a few years ago and was squeezed to sell it all back in the heat of a currency crisis. In a shockingly quiet year given how much gold moved to the upside before the post-election monkey hammering, we probably should finish with some generic goofiness.

On a few occasions, gold took the beatings that are familiar—huge futures dumps in the illiquid wee hours of the morning when no price-sensitive investor would ever consider selling. I retain previously stated convictions that GLD is a scam—fractional-reserve gold banking. Deutsche Bank was overwhelmed by requests for physical gold. A Swedish precious metal vault got its payment mechanism terminated without explanation. The silver market gets its share of muggings and sustained bashings, at times spanning several weeks.

Silver market treachery got some attention. The London Silver Fix—truth in advertising—at times deviated markedly from the spot price, 91 causing consternation among those attempting to fix the price. Deutsche Bank agreed to settle litigation over allegations it illegally conspired with Scotiabank and HSBC Holdings to fix silver prices at the expense of investors.

Gold bugs are reminded, however, of what a big victory will feel like:. The irony is that when gold finally pays off, it will not be a cause for celebration. You could almost hear the bell ringing on that one. Generally, however, energy was boring to me this year, but I keep investing in it.

Of course, lower energy prices were hailed as great tax breaks for the consumer, ignoring those who say the economy drives commodity prices not vice versa. Like every other market, however, has been totally financialized.

A few corporation-specific problems gurgled to the surface. Chesapeake Energy got indicted for energy market manipulation, prompting the CEO to off himself in a one-car accident. Petrobras canned 11, workers. Liquidation revealed a complex web of Ponzi financing. Apparently, Hillary was not the first to try to put a few coal miners out of jobs.

Coal is truly hated, and the industry is getting annihilated by the switch to natural gas, which is getting annihilated by fracking-based oversupply. All of my ideas are contingent on a prefacing market drop in the throes of a recession. One will come like night follows day, and then the merits of cash will be unambiguous.

Life insurers have huge energy-based junk bond exposure. Zero Hedge reported that the Dallas Fed was telling banks not to push bankruptcy on energy companies. I keep investing in energy, providing my own little Wall of Money to elevate the markets. A subset of this plan includes Russia, Iran, coal, and even uranium.

Thank God the real estate bust is over. Where did the massive inventory go? Some did the full cycle ashes to ashes. I suspect that many former foreclosures are rentals Figure 8. Although single-family rentals are a lousy business and represent a dangerous shadow inventory, soaring rental rates may actually make them profitable in the medium term.

They got placed in the government protection program under the pseudonym Karen Anne Quinlan living on Maiden Lane. Vancouver real estate went bonkers with the influx of Chinese money. Mansions were being bought and abandoned Figure 9. Shacks tear downs were selling for millions. Figure 9. With everybody on the same side of the boat boot , it would soon be listing starboard. Is that a blow-off top in Figure 10?

Not really. Figure Vancouver real estate prices — Legendary real estate analyst Mark Hanson sees a few frothy domestic markets, too Figure You want some entertainment? Check out this critique of the architectural wizardry behind the ever-popular MacMansion. Prime properties have also dropped in Paris, Singapore, Moscow, and Dubai.

You know the picnic is over for the commercial markets when the seven-story office building in Figure 12 gets stale on the market. That was inexcusable. Credit-enhanced cycles come to worse ends than the normal kind. Meanwhile, friend and market maven Grant Williams has created a masterpiece of analysis of our debt problems. Supposedly the Brits did it in the mid-nineteenth century. Where do you think the interest paid on savings comes from when there is interest, that is?

Despite the current calm—possibly the eye of the storm—there are newsworthy events in the world of debt. The consumer is stretched by having no savings and gobs of debt—huge net debt Figure The used car market is priced poorly owing to the overdeveloped credit machine created to sell the trade-ins from rentals. Can anybody picture the millennials paying this off? A comprehensive White House report lays out the stark details. There are rumors of arrests of student debtors—Operation Anaconda.

I think it more likely that we are slowly heading toward some form of debt jubilee. It will be highly politicized and unfairly distributed. Hints of one come in the form of disability relief for almost , students who are said to be disabled but unable to prove it. Corporate debt continues to give me fits as companies blow up their balance sheets to buy back shares and pay dividends. This is not self-extinguishing debt.

You hear about corporate cash on balance sheets from the media. That cash is stored in metaphorical crocks, because the story is bogus. Kinda sounds like the wealth disparity pitch all over again, eh? We owe it to ourselves? In a sense, yes. You know what you are owed, but do you know how much you owe to the rest of us? Got gold? You can pull different levers, but the decline in rates is an existential problem for the entire pension system.

It is a mathematical certainty that we will default on our obligations, but it will occur in some way invisible to most people, probably via cost of living adjustments that fail to track inflation, means testing, and just printing money.

I signed my wife up for social security early 62 on a bet that they would renege somehow. What started as a small payment turned miniscule. Here is her statement:. The risk is in the substrata of the pension system in which bankruptcy and insolvency are smash-mouth realities.

Paying state and municipal employees with pension promises was such an easy way to compensate people without raising the money. Noooo problem! Some examples are in order. Connecticut, Kentucky, and Hawaii have similar problems. For starters, the employees are the best compensated in the Union, including free health care for life. As you drill down, you find bloodbaths pretty much everywhere in municipalities. Even if we get serious about savings among, say, the boomers, many are way past their fail-safe points.

You can hear the barn door slam. At least those with defined benefit pensions are safe because they are protected by contractual obligations. Legal schmegal: there is no god-damned money! Pension cuts are just beginning but could accelerate. Bankruptcy is about distributing remaining assets in a fair and equitable way to all creditors when there is not enough to go around.

There is evidence of an old-school-style run on pensions: workers are retiring in serious numbers to remove their assets from faltering pension programs. Dallas police and firefighters are leaving the job to grab their full pensions from a dwindling stash. As seasoned public servants, they might be able to move to Austin or Houston. There is now evidence the withdrawals in Dallas are being shut down.

At the personal level, self-directed defined contribution plans paint a clockwork orange big time. The practice was outlawed. Right off our coast we have the tropical paradise of Puerto Rico, which is so up to its ass in debt that creditors essentially own the island. What about Europe? The markets in pretty much everything that is bought and sold are at nosebleed valuations. There is little or no room left for gains through changes in valuation.

Interest rates on bonds are miniscule, even negative vide infra. There is some evidence that the reversal has now started. Equity markets also have a mean regression in their future despite what the proponents of the mathematically sophisticated Greater Fool Theory espouse.

If the markets correct—they always do—you can adjust all those numbers I just cited by an arithmetically simple factor of 0. Could an industrial revolution save us? The most stupendous industrial revolution in history—the U. Unfortunately, I do not believe those returns are corrected for management fees and taxes. The central bankers and macroeconomists all want inflation. There are media pundits who buy into this metaphysical notion that inflation is good no offense to the metaphysicists.

Dispelling the notion that this quest for inflation is just hyperbole calls for some quotes to capture pundit sentiment:. Any cooling in the most pronounced driver of inflation means the Fed will have to wait even longer to reach their 2 percent price target. They may believe that by generating small positive inflation levels that seem to accompany strong economic growth, they will somehow create that growth.

More likely, they fear no inflation in an inherently inflationary credit-based banking system. If central bankers furiously debase their currencies with an inflationary tailwind and deflation appears nonetheless, then somebody screwed up them. I buy this latter thesis. Of course, the measure of inflation has been debated ad nauseam in the context of stats rendered dubious by hedonic adjustments, substitutions, unvarnished fraud, and adjustments based on reading goat entrails.

I discussed these frauds years ago. The fear of deflation is fear of asset deflation. With huge leverage in the system, a collapse in asset prices becomes insolvency and cardiac arrest. To me, the existential risk is hyperinflation, which is in full bloom in Venezuela and germinating in Nigeria.

Sounds a little ominous. Jeff wails that the current market for year treasuries is the worst opportunity in its long history. As I type, that is proving to be wrong—possibly dead wrong. At some point, this party has had to end. The third will end too. The bond market is like the Atlantic conveyor that must keep moving currents around the Atlantic Ocean.

When the bond market sputters, we will get the credit market analogue of an ice age. No problemo, say the optimists. Netting is when you round up investments on each side of the bet and simply cancel them out like from either side of an equal sign. How crazy has the bond market become? The French sold year bonds. Shockingly, the cronies front-ran the purchase program by buying existing corporate debt and creating new types of corporate debt, all for a tidy profit. Taking a cue from the U. It would be safer loaning money to your adult children, who will never pay you back either.

You know to the penny your return on that investment. On April 1, , an article appeared endorsing zero-coupon perpetual bonds. Did you know the word gullible is not in the dictionary? There is no endeavor in which men and women of enormous intellectual power have shown total disregard for higher-order reasoning than monetary policy.

I am not an economist, but my pinhead meter is pegging the needle. NIRP is where you pay people to lend them money. You heard that right: you give them money, and they give you back less. Capitalism progressed for 5, years without interest rates ever stumbling on the negative sign which, by the way, was invented by the Arabs more than a millennium ago. You can no longer simply say that bonds are at multi-century highs; it is mathematically impossible to bid rates on normal bonds into negative territory.

It takes a special kind of monetary fascism to create negative rates. Japan is at the vanguard. Eight days after Hiruhiko Kuroda, head of the Bank of Japan BoJ , announced he was not considering negative interest rates, he jammed rates negative. For the first time? Sovereign debt first dipped below zero only two years ago. NIRP has infected the consumer debt market: Denmark and Belgium are offering negative interest rate mortgages. While reading, rank their comments as 1 pragmatic resignation, 2 dubious, or 3 delusional rants of the clinically insane:.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. Technically there definitely is room for a further cut. While there are substantial constraints on policymakers, we believe it would be a mistake to underestimate their capacity to act and innovate.

But we consider all that, and we have to make trade-offs in economics all the time and the idea is the lower the interest rate the better it is for investors. For such a policy to work as intended, officials would have to do a lot of explaining ahead of time. So these paternalistic libertarians are doing it for the children.

There is no income left in fixed income. All those unresilient consumers are getting zip on what money they have. The low rates are designed to get them to spend their paltry savings. Giving them negative returns, however, in a twisted way is forcing them to save like their parents.

The inflation that the Fed desires comes, at least in part, from inherently inflationary fractional reserve banking in which interest rates demand net dollars to increase. Negative rates, by contrast, are inherently deflationary. Every year the banking system has less. They ARE deflation. You are necessitating savings. Low and negative rates are destroying pension management, insurance, and even banking industries. When your business model is to take in money, make decent returns, pay out a little less, and skim off the difference, then negative, zero, or even low interest rates are deadly.

The model fails. Trust funds, insurance companies, endowments—they are all being destroyed. Finally, low interest rates actually hurt the economy by keeping the weak alive, preventing the much needed creative destruction. Unviable companies on the life support of loose credit cannibalize serious businesses measurably, sometimes even fatally.

You must cull the herd of the sick and weak. When that rate is zero or close to it, their model is destroyed. Even if they put [short-term rates] back to zero, imagine the carnage, at least in the short-term bond markets. The private sector slowly collapses as we are seeing in Japan and Europe in real time. The Bank of England is doing things today that it has never done in its history, which is plus years. In finance, mostly nothing is ever new. However, with respect to interest rates and monetary policy, we are truly breaking new ground.

What makes the situation so troubling is the fact that investors seem to be oblivious to the enormous risks they are taking. They are sitting on a powder keg. We have become too dependent on central bankers. My best guess is that the system blows up and a lot of bankers find themselves seriously upside down.

The silent bank run is already happening. In a free market, NIRP is precluded by cash and hard assets. NIRP in Japan caused a run on safes for hoarding cash. The financial intermediaries are storing hard cash. You ever notice the War on Anything never works? Whether it be drugs, terror, poverty, Christmas, hunger, you name it, it becomes an interminable, profoundly costly adventure. Now we have the War on Cash. OK, millennials, listen up.

You might like paying for everything with your Swiss Army phones. These globalists wish to remove your right to an important civil liberty—to hold and spend wealth outside the view of the government and beyond the control of the banks. The global elite want to eliminate cash so that they can inflict monetary policy without restraint.

INACTIVES FOR PATRIOTS CHIEFS BETTING

Some areas contain single species such as the eastern Indo-Pacific, i. Biogeography Biogeographical areas Biogeographical areas are often somewhat vaguely defined owing to the continuity of geographic space. The limits of biogeographic areas are then somewhat artificial. Three particular problems were encountered in the present study. Eckman, The boundary area exists for virtually every area, hence, the allocation ot the Oregonian area to the two others will only shift the problem of the boundary, but not solve it.

Here the Oregonian province has been taken as a separate area. Taxonomic issues This work follows the general treatment of abalone taxa as outlined in Geiger a and references therein. Although the treatment is comprehensive, some problematic issues remain. Two particular cases have ramifications in the present context: H. The former may be two distinct species in Japan and western Australia, both with sparse records in the Indo-Malayan region, or it may be a single widespread species.

A lurther option to entertain is an antitropical distribution of two potential sister species with extinction in the tropical region cf. Briggs, The latter case may also represent two distinct species with identical distribution or a single polymorphic species. To address these problems and their effects on the biogeographic analysis, the data matrix was manipulated as detailed in materials and methods.

Geiger a tentatively resurrected a second Mediterranean species under the name H. Recent efforts by B. Owen have produced additional material of this species including some animals, which clearly show the species to be distinct from the better-known, Mediterranean H.

Owen pers. Geiger all the taxa involved elsewhere. Area cladograms Area cladograms show the relationship between geographic areas using a cladistic approach. The areas are treated as traditional taxa areas-as-taxa and the distributions of the species serve as the characters taxa-as-characters: Table 1. Any species occurring in more than one area helps to illuminate the relationship between the areas, hence, is an informative taxon- as-character.

The number of informative taxa-as-characters was 41 out of the The strict consensus trees ot the MPRs are shown in Fig. Two different consensus topologies were recovered Figs. The data-matrix as shown in Table 1 produced the first topology Fig.

The same topology was trees are characterized by a fairly broad basal polytomy, with additional resolution in more specific areas. Skewness or gi was The common feature of both consensus topologies are as follows. A European-west African group, a south Africa and western Indian Ocean group, a broad Indo-Pacific group, an eastern Pacific group, and a western Atlantic group are recognized in all analyses. Strict consensus all MPRs. EA: East Africa.

M: Mediterranean. IP: Indo-Pacific. NZ: New Zealand. SA: South Africa. W Atl. A From data matrix as shown in Table 1, and when H. B From data matrix combining H. The topology of Fig. Branch swapping on non-minimal length trees did not recover any additional MPRs as compared to simple heuristic searches. All searches with branch swapping on trees two steps longer than the most parsimonious trees resulted in memory overflow more than 32, trees.

All consensus basal polytomy. The position of the New Zealand and the tropical eastern Pacific provinces can be explained due to all the respective species being endemic, and no other species occurring there New Zealand: H. These species constitute autapomorphies for the regions, hence it is impossible for these regions to show relationships with other provinces. The same applies also to the western Atlantic provinces, i. The remaining areas in the basal polytomy are placed due to uncertain associations with other areas.

The central Indian Ocean and northwest Australia join basally. In Fig. The eastern north Pacific is a basal off-shoot from the latter. Hence, the main difference is the affinity of the warm-water Australian provinces with either the remaining Australian provinces Fig. The basal placement of the eastern north Pacific is difficult to explain as it lies between the large polytomy representing a broad Indo-Pacific region see below , and a subset thereof. If one traces back all the faunal provinces to the large polytomy, the latter represents a broad Indo-Pacific region from which all the more resolved groupings had been radiating out.

This pattern is evident in both consensus trees shown in Figs. The biogeographical analysis then best supports the Indo-Pacific hypothesis for the origin of the family, as discussed by Lindberg , and by Briggs for other taxa.

However, some contra-indications are found within the analysis. The Indo-Pacific origin would imply that the northeastern Pacific provinces should be derived from subtropical Japan, but these are rather found in a basal position. It was identical to the strict consensus tree showing that there is widespread disagreement among the individual MPRs regarding the position of the provinces joint in the basal polytomy.

It would, however, imply an origin of the Indian Ocean and eastern Atlantic provinces from within the broad Indo-Pacific group. However, the Indian Ocean as well as the eastern Atlantic groups stem from the basal polytomy as well.

Accordingly, the best supported hypothesis for the origin of the Haliotidae is within a broad Indo-Pacific region. From the present data, the precise location of the origin can not be pinpointed more precisely. Cladistic analysis of taxa In the total evidence cladistic analysis for 25 taxa and characters, were parsimony informative.

A comparison of the area cladogram Fig. Most of the Australian Fig. Strict consensus tree of 98 MPRs. EA: east Africa. IP: Indo- Pacific. SA: south Africa. The north Pacific group uniting both the eastern and western regions, is very strongly shown in Fig. The most unsettling problem relates to the position of the New Zealand species H. They are distributed over the tree, an outcome seen even more pronounced in analyses of sub-sets of the data not shown.

These three species seem to result from individual colonizations of the island as contrasted with a small radiation in this rather isolated region. The basal split of H. The position of the other two taxa is more challenging to interpret. Haliotis iris is wedged in between the Californian H. The root would then be trace to some general south Indo-Pacific region.

The New Zealand H. The root can be traced back to a general Indo-Pacific region. The type species of the genus Haliotis , H. Accordingly, any pertinent taxonomic decisions can not be made at this time. Some of the disagreement between the area cladogram and the taxon cladogram may be explained by the taxon sampling of the taxon cladogram.

Note for instance that the European species H. It may be due to the missing W African H. Hence, some minor disagreement between the biogeographical and the taxon analysis should not distract from the overall pattern pointing to a broad Indo-Pacific origin postulated by both analytical approaches. Illustrations of species All 56 described species in the family Haliotidae are figured here, along with one species in the process of being described Geiger, ; Owen et al. Those species that have hardly been illustrated are shown in color, the better known species in black and white.

Indications to published illustrations can be found in Geiger a. Some species have distinct juvenile forms, which deserve particular attention. Haliotis iris Figs. However, the subadults lack the characteristic striated muscle scar and the only slightly widened columella may easily be missed. Juveniles lack not only the muscle scar, but also the wide columella, and are often confused with adult H. The latter, however, has a lighter shell, more subtle cording, and often an undulating dorsal surface.

Haliotis midae Figs. In the eastern part the dark red form is found, in the western part the shells of adults are white. The strong lamellae and the numerous, elevated, but small holes are common to both. The juveniles, on the other hand, have an entirly smooth shell, which is always dark earthy-red in color, the larger tremata are not elevated at all, and the overall shape is more elongated than the almost round adults.

Often the nacre in the spire region has an orange tinge, which has lead to misidentifications of juvenile H. Juveniles of H. Haliotis spadicea also shows a few distinct spiral cords, whereas juvenile H. Haliotis asinina Figs. Juveniles up to a size of 3. Juveniles can not be confused with other abalone species, but often remain unidentified due to the discrete differences to adult shells. Color variability is extensive in the Haliotidae. I have selected a few particularly well-known cases, but those species that are only shown with a single specimen often show a similar range in their coloration e.

Haliotis jacnensis Figs. The major sculptural element are the hollow scales, which start at the suture and extend to a variable degree towards the row of holes Fig. For H. Differences in color pattern are abundant and are presented for H. Haliotis parva Figs. Such a coloration is now also known from two other South African species, H.

Owen, pers. Other sculptural variability is encountered in the European H. Mediterranean populations contain both entirely smooth Fig. The elevation of the spire can also differ markedly Figs. Such differences do not warrant formal recognition at any taxonomic level. Figures and show an intriguing specimen of unknown identity. It is one of three rather similar specimens in the MNHN ranging in size between 52 and 68 mm. According to the lable they were collected in Shang Hai in The specimens show a unique combination of characters: strong cords with some scales, and irregularly placed and deep folds.

These specimens certainly do not represent any of the known species in the area: H. The closest affinity is to H. However, the cording in H. The Shang Hai locality has to be treated with caution, because erroneous locality data abound particularly with 19th century specimens and publications. To mention but some of the most egregious cases, H. A pathological condition of the Shang Hai specimens can be ruled out, because the three specimens are very similar to one another and do not show any known signs ol accidents or disease, such as laterally shifted row of holes, holes closed out of sequence, strong growth mark, abrupt change in sculpture, thickened shell, blister pearls, or downward growth of aperture.

Bouchet pers. Marine extinction is an overlooked topic cf. Tegner et al. A particular effort to locate photographs of living animals has born fruits as shown in Figs. Many of the species are illustrated here for the very first time including, juvenile H. Owen et al. Biogeography and the fossil record The area cladogram as well as the taxon cladogram approach both place the origin of the abalone in a generalized Indo- Pacific region.

How does this find compare to the fossil record? The earliest known abalone fossils stem from the uppermost Cretaceous Maastrichian. Both localities certainly do not represent the Indo-Pacific by any stretch of the imagination. A look at the putative sistergroups of the Haliotidae will shed some light on this apparent discrepancy.

The Pleurotomariidae or the Trochidae have been proposed as sister groups of the Haliotidae. The Haliotidae have also been placed in a basal polytomy of the Vetigastropoda with an apomorphic Pleurotomariidae - Trochidae clade, as a sistergroup to the Fissurellidae, or in a polytomy with all Vetigastropoda except for its sistergroup the Pleurotomariidae Tillier et al.

The exact date of the split between these lineages will remain uncertain for the foreseeable future. Even molecular clock studies e. Accordingly, the Haliotidae had on the order of million years to alter their distribution pattern from their area of origin. Hence, the incompleteness of the fossil record accounts for the apparent discrepancy between the analytical approach and the fossil evidence.

On top of this major hiatus, a negative taphonomic feedback due to the habitat of abalone and their Figs. Cala St. Maria, Montecristo, Italy. Between rocks and on sand, 3 - 18 m, Very flat form. Preveza, Greece. Vanglis Tzimas, Highly lamellose form. DLG 14 am. Erquy, Brittany, France. Atlantic form of H. Azores, Portugal. Note more elongated shape and the distinct spiral grooves. Naxos, Sicily, Italy. In rock canyons and open rock fields, 3 - 6 m, IX Appertural view showing variation in spire elevation.

Off Busua, small isl. AMNH , 2. Haliotis stomatiaeformis Reeve, Figs. Giardini HUJ Lampedusa HUJ a, 1. Haliotis t. Guernsey Isl. LACM A. Channel Isl. Baie de St. Brieuc MNHN no , 2. Binic, C. Paimpol MNHN no , 1. Lannion MNHN no , 2. Lonent AMNH , 3. Concarneau MNHN no , 1. Hendaye ANSP , 2. Nantes USNM , 1. Barcelona ANSP , 1. Balearic Isl.

Almeria MNHN no , Collohando ANSP , 1. Marseille BMNH Sanary MNHN no , 1. Tropez MNHN no , 2. Near St. Raphael MNHN no , 2. Menton MNHN no , 1. Corse, Sanguinaires Isl. MNHN no , 1. Senigallia MHNG Apulia, T. Elba BMNH , 1. Montecristo, Cala St. Ischia Isl. SBMNH , 1.

Sicily SE, T. Vendicari NMBE Tyrrhenian Sea, Panarea Isl. AMNH , 1. Gallipoli USNM , 4. Lampedusa MHNG , 2. Rovinj MHNG , Istria, S coast Katarina Isl. Krk Isl. USNM , 1. Novi USNM , 1. Privic Isl. Cres Isl. Split DMNH , 4. Dalmatia, Korcula Isl. Makarska AMNH , Kefallina Isl. Poros Isl. DMNH , 5. Spetsai Isl. SBMNH , 2. Samos Isl. Rhodos USNM , 1. Kos Isl. Foca Med. Bizerte DMNH , 1. Casablanca MNHN no , 1. Tetouan MNHN no , 1. Asilah MNHN no , 1. Dakar USNM , 1. SW Europe to Channel Isl.

Tenerife DMNH , 2. Tenerifa, Czuzruy Isl. Salvane Isl. Santa Luzia Isl. Graciosa Isl. BMNH , South African Species Figs. Knysna MHNG , 1. For data see text. Durban NMBE Saldanha Bay, Marcus Isl. Saldanha Bay - Gonubie Richards, Saldanha Bay - Gonubie Jacks, Helena Bay - W Transkei Muller, Haliotis parva Linnaeus, Figs.

Simonstown AMNH , 3. Mosselbaai DMNH , 8. False Bay - Gonubie Richards, Transkei - S Natal Muller, Transkei - KwaZulu Muller, Haliotis spadicea Donovan, Figs. MNHN no , 2. Kleinmond DMNH , 1. Gonubie AMNH , 1. False Bay - Natal Richards, Haliotis speciosa Reeve, Figs. Port Alfred. ANSP , 1. Algoa Bay NMW, 2. Port Alfred - Natal Jacks, Port Alfred - W Transkei Muller, East African Species Figs. Masira Isl. Aden AMNH , 6: doubtful. Haliotis pustulata Reeve, Figs. Hurghagda, Biological Station EN no , 1.

Abu Latt Isl. Aden BMNH no , 1. S of Port Sudan UR , 1. Shells of East African abalone. Haliotis mariae Gray, LACM Muscat, Oman. Bosch Feb. Elat, Israel. Red variation. Pemba, N. Dark specimen with deep spiral ridges similar to those in H. Haliotis rugosa Lamarck, Denis, Reunion Island. Haliotis unilateralis Lamarck, Specimen with more arched dorsal surface and ledge less pronounced. Compare to Figs. Muscat AMNH , 1.

Malindi USNM , 1. Mtwapa NMBE ex S of Mafia Isl. LACM , 2. Dar es Salam, Sinda Isl. USNM , 2. Inhaca Isl. Bazaruta Isl. DMNH , 2. Mayotte BMNH no , 1. Leu LACM , 2: complete. S of Aqaba Mergner, Red Sea Sharabati, as vana. Haliotis rugosa Lamarck, Figs.

Leu LACM , 3, 1 with dried body. N of St. Pierre MNHN no , 1. Haliotis squamosa Gray, Figs. Haliotis unilateralis Lamarck, Figs. Off Elat KAS no : 6. Sinai, Dahab SBS, 1. Safaga RP, 1. Bab-el-Mandeb, ME5 star. Ouaramous Isl. KAS, 1. Gulf of Tadjoura, Moucha Isl. AMNH , 1 [? Port Sudan, Wingate Reef, S. Uzoi AMNH , 3. Phuket, E Kaew Yai Isl. LACM , 1: complete. Phuket Isl. Goh Sindarar Nua Chance Isl.

Paracels MNHN no , 1. Distribution of Indo-Pacific species of Haliotis sp. Geiger , 1. DMNH , 4. Mindoro, Calapan, Baco Isl. Mindoro, Cabra Isl. Mindanao, off Zamboanga, Bilau-Bilau Isl. Mindanao, off Zamboanga, Bilau Bilau Isl. Mindanao, off Zamboanga, Pangapuyan Isl. Mindanao, Zamboanga, Bilan- bilan Isl. DMNH , 3. Mindanao, Zamboanga, Santa Cruz Isl.

LACM , 1. Mindanao, Misamis Occ. Cebu, Olango Isl. Cebu, off Olango, Cawhagen Isl. E Cebu, 2 km S of Olango Isl. ANSP , 2. E Cebu, off Mactan, Hilutungan Isl. Cebu, Bantayan Isl. Cebu, Mad. Mactan USNM , 3. Masbate Isl. Leyte Isl. Bohol DLG Oli, 3. Bohol, Mantacas Isl. USNM , 3. Palawan, Cuyo Isl. Palawan, Calamian Isl. Palawan, Calamian Group, Manglet Isl. N Basilan Isl. Sulu Archipelago, Siasi and Bongao Isl. ANSP , Sulu Archipelago, Siasi Isl.

Off Sulu Archipelago, Jolo Isl. ANSP , 7. Sulu Archipelago, Tabawan Isl. Sulu Archipelago, Dammai Isl. Negros LACM , 1. Siquijor Isl. Rattakadokoru Isl. DMNH , 1. SW Rattakadokoru Isl. ANSP , 3. Babelthuap Isl. S Babelthuap Isl. E Babelthuap Isl. Reef S of W Babelthuap Isl. Koror Isl. Reef N of Garokottan Isl. ANSP U 1. Ngargersiul Isl.

Borneo, Mandi Darrah Isl. Aroe and Temmber Isl. NHB c, 7. Tanimbar, central N shore Larat Isl. USNM , 2: complete. Lompok DLG Figs. Shells of Indo-Pacific abalone. Haliotis crebrisculpta Sowerby, BMNH Haliotis glabra Gmelin, Kushinoto, Wakayama Preference, Japan. Typical color pattern. II Unkommon dark color pattern. Light color pattern. Haliotis ovina Gmelin, Fig.

Site 88, Astrolabe Reef, Fiji. Ventral view. Phuket, Thailand. Typical green variation. Helengeli, Maldives. Haliotis varia Linnaeus, No locality. Typical specimen of this extremely variable species. Haliotis asinina Linnaeus, Typical green specimen. Anaa, Takapoto, Niau atoll, Tuamotu. Haliotis diversicolor Reeve, Green finely mottled specimen. Red, coarsely mottled specimen. Geiger no , 1: complete. N of Java, Thousand Isl. USNM , 1: complete. Molluccas, N Toba Isl.

Irian Jaya, Biak Isl. Irian Jaya, Biak dock-reef, about 1. SBMNH no , 1. Irian Jaya, Rani Isl. New Brittain Isl. ANSP , 4. Barat Java, S Noekori Isl. Irian Barat, Abroeki Isl. Aitape, Seleo Isl. Trobriand Group, Kiriwina Isl. Bougainville LACM , 4.

Admirality Isl. Malaita, N Malaita Isl. Malaita Isl. Santa Cruz Isl. Santa Cruz Group, Reef Isl. Shortland Isl. Bungana Isl. BMNH , 1. Nggela Isl. Torres Strait, Moa Isl. Lizard Isl. Low Isl. Green Isl. Cairns, reef DMNH , Cairns, Double Isl. ANSP uncataloged, 4. GBR, Holbourne Isl. Whitsunday Isl. LACM P.

Capricorn Isl. Yeppon, Keppel Bay, Keppel Isl. SBMNH , 7. Keppel Isl. Gladstone, Tryon Isl. Lady Elliott Isl. NT: Darnley Isl. Roebourne LACM , 1. King Sound, Sunday Isl. AMNH , 3. Barrow Isl. SA: St. Cotton, S-most isl. PNG Hinton, Indonesia Dharma, Gosliner et al. Haliotis clatbrata Reeve, non Lichtenstein, Figs. Sandy Isl. Anjouan: BMNH no , 1. Mayotte, Benthedi, N Pamanzi Isl. S32, ANSP , 1: complete.

Sentosa KAS no , 1. Palawan, Calamian Group, Batunan Isl. Mindanao, Silino Isl. Lubang KAS no , 1. Arakbesan Isl. Java, Pulau-Pulau Seribu Isl. LACM , 8. Schouten Isl. LACM , 3: 1 complete. Bali RP no , 2. Dual Tual RP no , 1. Lesser Sunda Isl. Ambon, Nus Laut Isl. DLG 44e, 1: specimen from Baer, Borneo, Sabah, Sipidan, Sapi Isl. KAS no , 1: complete. CASIZ , 1.

New Britain RP, 1. New Brittain, Rabaul RP no , 3. CASIZ , 3. Middle Keppel Isl. Great Keppel Isl. KAS no , 1. South Keppel Isl. Keppel Group, Conical Isl. CASIZ Keppel Bay, Middle Isl. KAS no , 3. Keppel Bay, Keppel Isl. Keppel Bay, Pumpkin Isl.

Humpy Isl. Gladstone RP no , 1. Moreton Bay KAS no , 1. Lord Howe Isl. Bunana Isl. BMNH , 2. Touaourou USNM , 1. Bourail AMNH , 1. Ouen Isl. DW99, 1. DMNH 66, 1. Eniwetok, Rigili Isl. Kwajalein KAS no , 1. Kwajalein, Carlson Isl. Rongerik, Bock Isl. Eua Isl. Kepulauan Seribu Stewart, They are currently hovering around bps in spread terms which compares to the wides in spread of bps back in February. Moving on. When combined with the manufacturing data earlier in the week, the flash composite print of The business climate reading was up a full point from April to This means that the business climate reading has now made up more than half of the decline it had seen from November Staying in Europe and a bit more on the Greece announcement 24 hours ago.

He also said that his view was unchanged relative to that in March when he indicated that two hikes this year could be appropriate. Over in the US the big focus will be on the durable and capital goods orders for April. They do however expect ex-transportation orders to be flat for the month continuing the trend of weak business investment. After yesterday's two key events, the ECB and OPEC meetings, ended up being major duds, the market is looking at the week's final and perhaps most important event of the week: the May payrolls report to generate some upward volatility and help stocks finally break out of the range they have been caught in for over a year.

However, even today's jobs number will likely be skewed as reported previously as a result of the Verizon strike which is said to trim some 35, jobs from the headline print, casting anything the BLS reports today in doubt. On the other hand, the Verizon strike is precisely why the consensus expectations going into today is , not ,; however if even that number is missed, economists will promptly forget that they had already factored the Verizon strike in their calculations.

That said, if futures are expecting a miss, they don't show it and most asset classes, from stocks to commodities, are heading toward the monthly U. The market may rise a bit but it could be a tug of war after that as investors scrutinize what impact the data may have on the possibility of higher interest rates. The Stoxx Europe Index added 0. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0. The gauge bottomed this year at a closing low of Traders are looking out for any trends in economic data for clues on how monetary policy will play out.

As Bloomberg writes , "financial markets have become emboldened that the economy is strong enough to withstand a hike this month or next. Fed Governor Lael Brainard will be the first U. In Europe traders have been somewhat in a state of limbo this morning, recovering from the ECB and OPEC non-drama yesterday, while also looking ahead to the risk event of the day in the form of the nonfarm payroll reports. Energy names are among the best performers this morning, benefiting from upside in the commodity complex, with WTI trading back above USD Bunds trade near contract highs this morning, continuing the trend seen in the wake of the slightly underwhelming ECB press conference and projections, with further downbeat news this morning coming from the Bundesbank in the form of downgrades to both growth and inflation forecasts.

Participants also saw mixed services and composite PMIs, with both final readings from France as well as the German Composite missing on expectations, although the Eurozone wide figure did see a modest beat. In FX, there is little to read into this morning's FX trade, apart from the heavy tone in the EUR, with the market going into meeting yesterday looking for a more upbeat outlook than was alluded to by governing council head.

The inflation and growth forecasts were disappointing in this respect, and this has only been exacerbated by the Bundesbank announcement this morning of downward revisions in Germany's equivalent stats. All hangs on the US data later today, but there may be some confusion over the impact of the Verizon strikes.

Euro zone retail sales lower than expected, but EU composite PMIs higher in the final read, but weakness seen in the French numbers. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0. The Number Cruncher Politics website is calculating a Brexit probability of The rand slipped 0. In commodities, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0. Brent crude added 0. The third drop in U. Zinc rose for a seventh day for its longest rising streak in almost two years amid continued speculation of a raw materials shortage, rising with copper and aluminum.

Net-long positions in LME futures for the metal are close to an month high seen in May, indicating that investors continue to bet on a rally. Soybean futures climbed 1. Prices surged Thursday amid forecasts for dryer weather in the U. On today's calendar in the US, the big release is the payrolls print and other components of the May employment report. In particular the ISM services reading will be under the spotlight, with current expectations of a 0.

Away from the data expect there to be the usual focus on the Fedspeak with Evans due to speak this morning in London along while Brainard who is expected to speak in the early evening. Both are scheduled to speak on the economy and policy. So here we go again. Another payroll Friday has been reached. By my crude calculations this morning I think today's might be the th of my career. Interestingly they've only averaged 95k over this whole period but this number is heavily skewed by the recessions.

I wonder what the probabilities of me writing this by the time my th comes along. By then a robot will likely be the author which is ironic to discuss on employment day. In preparation for this main event, yesterday saw ADP report a k private payroll gain in May - exactly in line with expectations. There was no evidence that the Verizon strike impacted the number. However the BLS strike report suggests that payrolls are likely to show a 35k impact from the striking Verizon workers which is why consensus is at k not k - the 3 month trailing average.

DB is at k on concerns weaker growth and profits will dampen employment. It was those moves in Oil yesterday which dictated much of the market direction for risk on both sides of the pond. Indeed the index hit its lows for the day That puts the index now at a seven-month high. Rates-wise US 10y Treasury yields dipped a few basis lower to close below 1.

There were similar moves in Europe where 10y Bund yields were down 2bps and at 0. Switching over to the latest in Asia where markets are closing the week on a more mixed note. The Shanghai Comp The Caixin services PMI edged down 0. The overall tone of meeting was one of confidence and patience about the new policies being implemented before any real conclusions are drawn.

First, the UK referendum result. Third, the exchange rate. The ECB Council continues to expect the exchange rate to weaken thanks to divergent monetary policy cycles. If Brexit occurs, he expects further policy easing from the ECB and for this to occur relatively quickly. That brings us to the CSPP then and some of the finer technical details released by the ECB yesterday after the programme was confirmed as starting on the 8th June.

We understand this to mean then that insurers and REITS are eligible as previously expected, but the newly added condition eliminates brokers, securities firms and asset managers. Meanwhile, the Eurosystem can hold onto fallen angel bonds, i. The bonds purchased by the Eurosystem will be available for borrowing and their list will be published weekly.

More details on this are in the report published by Michal Jezek in my team which should have hit your emails a short time ago. Staying on the central bank theme, there was also a little bit of Fedspeak for markets to digest yesterday. One of the more dovish voters on the committee, Tarullo said that the Brexit vote is bringing alot of uncertainty and is a factor that he would consider in his policy outlook.

Tarullo also spoke on the subject on banking regulation and said that he expects stress tests for the bigger US banks to get stricter in the near term. With regards to the other data yesterday, initial jobless claims in the US last week were down a modest 1k to k vs. The other data yesterday came in the form of the NY ISM survey which turned a few heads with its near 20pt decline in the index to Euro area retail sales for April are also due to be released this morning.

Over in the US the big release is the aforementioned payrolls print and other components of the May employment report. Away from the data expect there to be the usual focus on the Fedspeak with Evans 8. Every year, the world's richest and most powerful business executives, bankers, media heads and politicians sit down in some luxurious and heavily guarded venue, and discuss how to shape the world in a way that maximizes profits for all involved, while perpetuating a status quo that has been highly beneficial for a select few, even if it means the ongoing destruction of the middle class.

We are talking, of course, about the annual, and always secretive, Bilderberg meeting. Workers erect a barricade outside the Taschenbergpalais hotel in Dresden. The Taschenbergpalais hotel in Dresden - the venue of "Bilderberg " which starts tomorrow and continues until June 12 - is filling up with pistol-packing plainclothes security as the last guests are ushered out.

The frowning gunslingers head up and down the corridors with their hotel maps, trying door handles and checking the lay of the land while, down in the hotel lobby, corporate goons gather in muttering huddles. A glimpse at what is about to unfold: according to the local newspaper DNN , at least police officers will be surrounding the venue for the three days of the talks.

No one gets in or out without the right lanyard. As Ed Balls remembers only too well, from that awkward business in Copenhagen. Inside the security cordon, the final nervy tweaks are being made by conference staff.

A single ray could be fatal. But why? On its official website , Bilderberg attempts an answer. Dialogue which is designed to foster dialogue. Even if that something is chlamydia. Taschenbergpalais hotel in Dresden. What is really discussed is how to take the existing trends in the world, some favorable, some undesired, and mold them in such a way as to create even more wealth for the world's 0.

As noted above, the official list of "key topics " to be discussed is both broad quite vague and includes:. That's just for public consumption. After all, who needs massive concrete blocks and police officers for protection to discuss "technological innovation" - better yet, just open up the session to the press and public. Of course, that won't happen, because the real agenda must remain under wraps.

However one can infer from the agenda and some of the names on the participant list what the group will be discussing in more detail. As a result, it will now have to spend much more time dealing with the damage control. Brexit will be another major topic. With the British referendum vote to leave the EU taking place in just two weeks, and with David Cameron getting concerned , a vote to secede threatens the future of the European Union federal superstate that was the brainchild of Bilderberg in the first place.

Studies have shown that wealth inequality increases the likelihood of mass social disorder. Furthermore, as the Fed itself admitted recently, it is the Fed, by way of manipulating markets higher, that has been an instrumental catalyst behind record wealth inequality. Indeed, Bilderberg operates under Chatham House Rules, which means that none of the participants are able to reveal any comments made during the conference. They act like abuse victims. You remember?

Yes, of course you do. Now off you go. So what do the politicians and public officials get from the deal? For those who don't use the event as a glorified LinkedIn mixed for billionaires, the motive is far simpler: make even more money. In this regard the Guardian's amusing conclusion is spot on:.

And if you learn to play the game, to fit in with the in crowd, then maybe, like Blair, you can end up with a cushy job with US investment bank JP Morgan. Ultimately, what is decided will never see the light of day, or rather it won't over the next 4 days. Instead it will emerge as official policy, fiscal but mostly monetary as central bankers live to serve the Bilderberg elite, laws, regulations, and social norms.

And if history is any indicator, it will only make the current global situation even worse. Below is a full list of this year's participants :. Finally, for those who are skeptical about the massive power and reach of the relatively small Bilderberg group, here is a recent graph which shows the members' connections to virtually every important and relevant organization, company and political entity in the world.

As reported previously , starting today politicians, bankers, influential leaders, chiefs of major global businesses, even actors and pundits will meet at the 64th Bilderberg meeting, set to take place over the next three days at the Taschenbergpalais Hotel in Dresden, Germany, where the official agenda will be quite different from what will really be discussed read this for a full breakdown. Petraeus, Philip M. The conference, surrounded by tight hundreds of heavily armed guards and concrete blocks, is notoriously secretive in its discussions which take place under Chatham House rules nothing can be revealed , and regularly attracts demonstrations against what critics describe as a global meeting of western capitalists, politicians and academics who wield great power behind the scenes.

Daniel Estulin, author of "The True Story of the Bilderberg Group" describes the meetings as "a shadow world government…. As reported yesterday, among the dozens of guests included this year are Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman, Alphabet Inc. And while there is no way to report from inside the hotel, courtesy of social media we at least managed to get a glimpse of the world's richest and most powerful people as they made their way to the inner sanctum.

HelenGoodmanMP did you know that 2 young, peaceful British protesters have just been arrested outside Bilderberg? Bit rich considering the size of the Airbus tent inside. But nothing to write home about, and certainly nothing to derail the procession which saw the following special arrivals:. James A Johnson GoldmanSachs board on another of his walkabouts. He just won't stay put in the hotel!

Bilderberg pic. Airbus chief Thomas Enders not ashamed to show his face at Bilderberg. Jack Black arrives at Bilderberg Kissinger's pet academic Niall Ferguson. The quote "libertarian" Peter Thiel just arrived at Bilderberg pic. Jose Manuel Barroso arrives at Bilderberg.

Vernon Jordan, Bilderberg's token black guy, arrives in Dresden. We encourage readers to read the full interview here , however one item that caught our attention was that in explaining how KKR came into existence, Kravis also enlightened readers on how the "20" came to be in the 2-and compensation model that is the industry standard today.

JK Take me back to How did the whole KKR experiment begin? But the catch was they wanted to be the investment committee. But if you do invest, we want 20 percent of the profits. JK How did you come up with 20 percent, which became the industry standard?

Interestingly, sometimes there are no complex mathematical formulas or deep thoughts for how things come to be, on occasion, it really is just that simple. Pound sterling was trading at 1. Whether the murder of Jo Cox was the catalyst that has turned around the outcome of the Brexit referendum is unclear, however it is certain that the moment when the news of her shooting and subsequent death hit is when cable was at it lows.

Since then it has soared without looking back, as the momentum in the Leave camp has gone, replaced by a poll showing "Remain" leading by three percentage points before the referendum on Thursday. As a result, as we showed last night , global equities and US futures rallied and the pound strengthened the most since , soaring by pips since the Friday close as polls signaled the campaign for the U.

K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U. Treasuries and gold slumped. The yen fell for the first time in seven days. Oil rallied with industrial metals as gold retreated from a five-month high. With Leave ascendent going into Thursday, and with campaigning suspended into Saturday, this is what has happened since for those who missed it.

There were four notable polls over the weekend. YouGov have compiled two which straddle Thursday's campaign suspension. So it could be said some momentum shift had occurred before Thursday's campaign suspension but after it there seems to be further evidence. This confirms the above trends. But does one poll determine the outcome of the referendum? This really could still go either way.

The referendum is being watched by governments, central banks and investors around the world amid worries that a U. For now, however, whether it is another massive short squeeze or a genuine elimination of Brexit as a concerns, global stocks have soared: the Stoxx Europe Index climbed 2. Germany's Dax was higher by 3.

BHP Billiton Ltd. Japanese exports dropped in May for the eighth month in a row, data showed Monday, before a speech by central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. WTI crude climbed 1. Looking at regional market, we start in Asia where stocks shrugged off last Friday's US weakness, with most equity markets trading in positive territory following strength in crude and optimism for the Remain camp ahead of the EU referendum.

The early downside came despite a significant CNY bIn liquidity injection by the PBoC, with demand for stocks dampened after firm China Home Prices data increased the appeal for property investment and also provides less room for China to ease policy.

In Europe, we have seen a strong bout of risk on sentiment across Europe, following the latest batch of referendum polls shifting towards the 'remain' camp. Germany's DAX has exploded some 3. As well as this energy names have also performed well today given strength seen in the energy complex.

In terms of fixed income, Bunds are trading lower this morning with yields seeing a reprieve amid the rally in equities as Brexit fears abate, as such the yr benchmark has slipped below In FX, the pound strengthened against all 31 major peers, rising 2 percent versus the dollar, its biggest surge since The euro appreciated 0.

The yen dropped 0. Yen for his ability to influence the exchange rate in the late s, predicts the exchange rate will gradually strengthen more than 4 percent toward by the end of the year. It was pegged at through the end of last week, when three-month non-deliverable forwards were trading at In commodities, gold slipped 1.

As of June 14, money managers held the second-biggest bet ever that bullion would rally further, according to U. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1. Nickel led gains among industrial metals, rallying 1. Copper added 0. Corn dropped 1. Department of Agriculture is set to release its U. Those with a nervous disposition might want to hide this week as we have what could be a highly stressful event.

Yes it episode 9 of the current series of Game of Thrones tonight. If previous series are anything to go by, the penultimate installment is the one to leave you shocked and emotionally drained. I've seen the title for tonight's episode which can't be repeated in a family daily and everything suggests an epic! No spoilers though please as I'll be watching a day late due to England playing tonight. I'm a bit stressed writing this as I can't remember if I told my wife the football was delaying GoT for a day.

Onto the actual main event of the week, if one believes the UK EU Referendum polls are a good reflection of sentiment, then this weekend it seems like the 'Remain' campaign have managed to undo the momentum that the 'Leave' campaign seemed to have built before last Thursday's suspension of debate and activity.

There have been four notable polls over the weekend. Interestingly YouGov have compiled two which straddle Thursday's campaign suspension. As we type the current odds are However Alan thinks that there are a number of other factors which make the response more symmetrical including the sizable over hedging for GBP downside extreme moves, related spec positioning and downside protection from the BoE, amongst others. Indeed this more balanced view is also shared by DB strategists in other asset classes.

Overall though it feels like the general conclusion is one of much more balance in terms of pricing either way although clearly that could change quickly depending on the progression of remaining polls into Thursday. Normally credit and equity performance is linked, at least in terms of direction.

However this is turning into a rare year. See the report an hour before this one for more. The other big news from the weekend has come out of India where the Governor of the RBI, Raghuram Rajan, has announced that he is to stand down at the end of his current term in September.

While his future had become a more talked about subject in recent weeks, it still throws open a period of uncertainty for India at a time where the UK EU referendum vote and Fed watching have markets already on edge. Indian equity markets are back to flat after initially opening in the red. Elsewhere however and China aside, markets are relatively positive this morning. Recapping Friday, markets finished the week on fairly divergent paths on each side of the Atlantic.

Sentiment was greatly improved in Europe with the suspension of the UK EU referendum campaign seemingly helping. Over in the US however that positive sentiment never really carried over and markets were in the red from the off. This more than offset the big gains from commodity sensitive names. Those moves coincided with another weak day for the US Dollar. St Louis Fed President Bullard confirmed that he favours only one more rate hike through to come this year and declined to give a long-run projection.

Clearly this is a huge change in stance from someone who was previously considered one of the most hawkish members of the committee. The only releases of note came in the afternoon in the US when it was revealed that housing starts declined less than expected in May The big event next week however is away from the data and of course reserved for Thursday with the UK EU referendum vote.

In the lead up there are various TV debates scheduled each evening. As well as that, we will also hear from Fed Chair Yellen this week when she is set to address the Senate on Tuesday 3. Randi Weingarten is the president of the American Federation of Teachers, and is a name that hedge fund managers and those on Wall Street are beginning to learn quite well.

About a decade ago, some liberals joined conservatives in pushing to expand charter schools. As the WSJ reports , those efforts received financial support from hedge fund managers including Dan Loeb, Paul Singer and Paul Tudor Jones, who together kicked in millions of dollars toward the effort.

Some involved in the effort to push for the expansion of chartered schools portrayed public school teachers and their unions as obstacles to improving education, and thus the reputation of unions took a beating. Enter Randi Weingarten. Weingarten was elected president of the American Federation of Teachers in , and her aim was to restore public trust in public school teachers and their unions.

Although the unions themselves control where the money is invested, Weingarten can make recommendations. Weingarten instructed investment advisers at the federation's Washington headquarters to sift through financial reports and examine the personal charitable donations of hedge fund managers, focusing on those who want to end defined benefit pensions, and entities backing charter schools and the overhauling of public schools. In early , the union federation published a list of roughly three dozen Wall Street asset managers it says donated to organizations that support causes opposed by the union, and the federation wanted union pension funds to use the list as a reference guide when deciding where to invest or not invest their money.

The Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, a think tank that supports increasing school choice and replacing defined benefit pension plans with k -type plans is one of the groups that wound up on the list. Lawrence Mone, its president, said the tactics amount to intimidation, and that "I don't think that it's beneficial to the functioning of a democratic society. Asness was removed from the list.

Asness continued to serve on the board of The Manhattan Institute, however in September of last year an aide to Weingarten spoke to a California State Teachers' Retirement System Calstrs official about Asness's continued service - one phone call later and Asness said that he was stepping down from the Manhattan Institute board.

One hedge fund manager has been more combative however - Dan Loeb. A bit more combative is an understatement - Loeb pushed back on Weingarten, and didn't seem to care about the influence she had over where funds were directed. As the WSJ explains. In a March letter to Mr. Loeb, Ms. Loeb emailed Ms. A week later, Ms. Weingarten wrote back to reiterate that unions were wary of investing with Mr. In response, Mr. The meeting was called off, and Mr.

Loeb was added to the list. At a fundraising dinner that May for his charter-school group, Mr. Loeb said recently in a written statement. Around that same time, a giant billboard appeared above Times Square that was not kind to Weingarten - perhaps not a coincidence.

After the billboard, Weingarten and the union group launched an advocacy group called Hedge Clippers, that lobbied against proposed New York legislation to increase the charitable deduction for donations to public and private schools. The group also published a report called "All That Glitters Is Not Gold," that among other things, claimed that the high fees charged by hedge funds made them unattractive investments. Furthermore, the union group is funding a campaign to eliminate the carried interest tax rate on investment income earned by asset managers, as well as filing a class action lawsuit accusing 25 Wall Street firms of violating antitrust law and manipulating Treasury bond prices.

Other large pension funds such as an Illinois public pension fund and one of New York City's public pension funds have cut hedge fund investments. However, Loeb may have had the last laugh, as when Weingarten tried to convince a large Ohio fund to follow suit, it voted to remain invested in hedge funds, including Loeb's. Regardless of a stance on this topic, this battle between Weingarten and the targeted hedge funds such as Third Point will remain an epic story to watch unfold.

Also, as readers know, pension funds are severely underfunded , and given that NIRP and other insane central bank policies have created an environment where risk assets are a necessity if one wants to generate higher target returns, hedge funds may be one avenue that pension funds need to consider, whether the funds support charter schools or not.

Stocks rose around the world, led by emerging-markets, as oil climbed further after its best week since April and traders pushed back bets on higher U. While Developed Markets have been sleepy, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed to the highest level in more than a year, with Chinese equities rallying the most since May on speculation of more property takeovers.

The MSCI emerging markets gauge rose 0. The ruble strengthened as oil extended gains on speculation that producers will revive talks to stabilize prices. The oil price recovery is supportive for sentiment too. Oil prices rebounded in early trading, forcing more shorts to cover after comments by the Russian Energy Minister Novak who stated that Russia are consulting with Saudi Arabia, other countries to achieve oil market stability.

However, the initial euphoria has fizzled and oil was largely unchanged at last check. Among other notable overnight movers, in addition to the ongoing strength in EMs indices, now up for an 8th consecutive day, China's Shanghai Composite jumped 2. The DAX Index rose as much as 0.

Volkswagen added 1. Glencore Plc dragged raw material producers lower. Later today, the latest NY Fed "Empire Manufacturing" report is expected to rise modestly by 2, after last month's 0. Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia, where sentiment was lifted by the upside in WTI and Brent crude futures with the latter making a break above USD The Nikkei JGB's continued to extend on losses despite the soft Japanese GDP readings, with some attributing the weakness to Fridays comments where Japan Post announced that they have reduced their JGB holdings again and may invest around half of their JGB redemptions in foreign bonds.

In a very quiet morning European equities have traded higher, with volumes very thin due to Assumption day. In fixed income market, today sees no major supply and amid the light newsflow Bunds have been trading flat throughout the morning, while today saw 10 year Gilt yields continue their decline to reach 0.

Also of note, today we shall be looking out for the BoE's year Gilt purchase, which could garner particular focus given that last week saw the BoE fail to purchase the full allotment. In FX, the dollar weakened against most of its major peers amid receding chances of a Fed rate increase this year.

The greenback fell 0. Sterling reached a one-month low Monday before reports on inflation, retail sales and unemployment benefit claims for July, which will provide more detail on how the economy is faring after the June 23 Brexit referendum.

Hedge funds were the most bearish on the pound on record in the week ended Aug. The Mexican peso advanced 0. In commodities, both WTI and Brent crude futures enter the North American crossover in positive territory, albeit off best levels. Initial upside for prices emanated from comments by the Russian Energy Minister Novak who stated that Russia are consulting with Saudi Arabia, other countries to achieve oil market stability. Gold rose for the first time in three days as the dollar traded near its lowest level since June, boosting demand for a haven.

Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0. In base metals, copper prices in London printed a one-month low as demand concerns continue to hamper prices with price action otherwise relatively contained. British, this week will be where we get our first major glimpse of hard post-Brexit data following a raft of weak sentiment surveys released so far.

I suppose the Euro and Yen have had big bouts of depreciation in the last couple of years without lasting impacts on inflation but the UK imports more relatively. That's financial repression for you. Over the rest of the week the UK highlights are July unemployment Wednesday , retail sales Thursday and the public finance data Friday.

The latter being interesting as we edge closer to the Autumn statement where looser fiscal policy is expected. Staying with data, disappointments in the US on Friday halted the recent rally in equity markets. European credit saw iTraxx Main largely unchanged on the day and the week as a whole, while Crossover tightened by -3bps on the day and by nearly -9bps on the week.

US CDX indices were fairly static on the day and pretty much flat on the week. Soft data appeared to impact rates markets the most as German 10Y and US 10Y yields dropped by -2bps and -5bps respectively on the day, falling by -4bps and -8bps on the week after the post payrolls spike the Friday before. UK yields continued to drop to fresh new lows, with 10Y yields dropping by -2bps on the day and bps on the week.

Asian stocks are mostly higher this morning with the Nikkei There is also talk that weak new credit numbers late on Friday, which rounded off a soft monthly data dump from earlier in the day, increases the likelihood of more stimulus before YE. Digging into the data on Friday now. The US saw a busy session of broadly weak data reinforcing the tepid growth story.

July retail sales numbers disappointed 0. Auto sales helped support the headline number as ex-auto sales contracted by This slowdown in consumer spending is certainly concerning given that it was the primary driver of US growth in the past quarter. Producer inflation also unexpectedly fell into deflationary territory in July The UMichigan consumer sentiment indicator for August picked up but less than forecast Inflation expectations for the next year also declined to 2.

Taking a look now at the week ahead. Wednesday brings us labour data for the UK in the form of jobless claims, earnings and unemployment numbers. Thursday kicks off in Asia with trade data out of Japan. The top political news on Friday was the unexpected resignation of Trump campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, which was the result of emerging revelations that his political consulting firm, DMP International, had orchestrated a covert Washington lobbying operation in the period on behalf of Ukraine's then ruling political party, attempting to sway American public opinion in favor of the country's pro-Russian government which was overthrown in a CIA-orchestrated coup in early Another goal: undercutting American public sympathy for the imprisoned rival of Ukraine's then-president.

At the time, European and American leaders were pressuring Ukraine to free her. Furthermore, under the U. The issue is that neither Paul Manafort, nor his deputy, Rick Gates, disclosed their work as foreign agents as required under federal law. Now if this was the extent of the violations, it would be an open and shut case of potential non-disclosure of lobbying on behalf of a foreign soon to be overthrown government, one which could result in felony charges and potential prison time for employees of DMP International, up to and including Manafort.

Which is why it is clear why Trump had to quickly get rid of Manafort as his ongoing presence was a major risk factor overhanging the entire Trump campaign, one which could even lead to incarceration and ongoing accusations of pro-Russian influence. However, where things get trickier is that in addition to Manafort and his deputy Rick Gates, other, far more prominent firms are also implicated, chief among them the Podesta Group, headed by Tony Podesta - the brother of Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta.

Tony Podesta, the Podesta Group. As reported yesterday , emails obtained by the Associated Press showed that Gates personally directed two Washington lobbying firms, Mercury LLC and the Podesta Group, between and to set up meetings between a top Ukrainian official and senators and congressmen on influential committees involving Ukrainian interests.

Gates noted in the emails that the official, Ukraine's foreign minister, did not want to use his own embassy in the United States to help coordinate the visits. The emails further illustrate how Gates worked with Mercury and the Podesta Group on behalf of Ukrainian political leaders. None of the firms, nor Manafort or Gates, disclosed their work to the Justice Department counterespionage division responsible for tracking the lobbying of foreign governments. And this is where the plot thickens, because while the bulk of the press has so far spun the entire Ukraine lobbying scandal, which led to Manafort's resignation, as the latest "proof" that pro-Moscow powers were influencing not only Manafort but the Trump campaign in general who some democrats have even painted of being a Putin agent , the reality is that a firm closely tied with the Democratic party, the Podesta Group, is just as implicated.

In papers filed in the U. Senate, Mercury and the Podesta Group listed the European nonprofit as an independent, nonpolitical client. The firms said the center stated in writing that it was not aligned with any foreign political entity. Sure enough, the chairman of the Podesta Group, Tony Podesta, brother of Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta, repeated the excuse and said his firm believed Gates was working for the nonprofit.

Podesta said he was unaware of the firm's work for the Ukraine's Party of Regions, led by Yanukovych. On Thursday, his firm said it had nothing new to add. We believed he was working for the Centre, as we were hired to do. Now political consultants are generally leery of registering under the FARA, and disclosing foreign government clients, because their reputations tends to suffer once they are on record as accepting money to advocate the interests of foreign governments - especially if those interests conflict with America's.

Moreover, registering under the law would have required Gates, Manafort or the lobbying firms to disclose the specifics of their lobbying work and their efforts to sway public opinion through media outreach.

However, now that the FBI is involved, Podesta Group has quickly lawyered up and as a statement by CEO Fritts reveals, the firm has hired an outside legal counsel in anticipatory defense for what may be a significant legal battle for the pro-democratic think tank:. A quick primer on Tony Podesta : born , he is an American lobbyist best known for founding the Podesta Group. Ed Rendell's reelection campaign.

He is closely connected with the Barack Obama White House and has repeatedly been named one of Washington's most powerful lobbyists and fundraisers. An interesting tangent on the power of the Podesta Group was revealed back in in a brief US News expose :. When the White House proved true to its promise of full disclosure by releasing a list of recent West Wing visitors, the headlines went to the big donors like George Soros, the big movie stars like George Clooney, and the mega-union bosses like Andy Stern of the Service Employees International Union.

But to insiders, the list showed something else: The power of the Podesta family. By comparison, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made one visit. For John Podesta, the rise as one of Washington's influentials is richly deserved.

He runs the Center for American Progress, which has become a very influential policy shop for the Democrats. He also was Obama's transition chief. As for the Podesta lobbying husband-and-wife team, their legendary influence has now been stamped with the White House seal of approval.

The Democratic White House's seal of approval that is. Of course, this is just a small fraction and you can examine the entire list here. Where things get even trickier is when looking at recent disclosures of who we know the Podesta Group has received substantial cash from.

Namely Saudi Arabia. Recall from an April article in The Hill , discussing the fallout from the disclosure of Saudi ties in the Sept 11 terrorist attack, which as reported previously, was initially heavily frowned upon by the Saudis:. The dispute is causing a diplomatic storm for the Obama administration; Saudi Arabia has long been an ally of the U. During the last few months of , it sent 27 emails, had two phone calls and one meeting with lawmakers and staffers, journalists, and organizations including Human Rights Watch and the Center for American Progress, disclosure forms show.

This is what bin Salman was quoted as saying:. Below is a screenshot of the English report published, and which then was quickly deleted, by the Petra News Agency. However, according to an update by MEE just the next day , a spokesperson for the Podesta Group contacted MEE to say that they work with the Saudi Royal Court and to request a correction to the earlier story that said the Jordanian news agency had deleted the quotes from Prince Mohammed.

Senior global communications specialist Will Bohlen - who, prior to joining Podesta, was chief researcher for a best-selling history of Bill Clinton's presidency - sent a link to a clarification issued by the Petra News Agency which said it was "totally false and untrue" that they had published then deleted the quotes from Prince Mohammed about funding the Clinton campaign.

The agency was surprised to see some media outlets as well as the social media publishing false news that were attributed to Petra. They said that Petra transmitted a news item related to the deputy crown prince of Saudi Arabia and later deleted this news item. This is totally false and untrue. As we said at the time, " one can see why Podesta would be worried: it is illegal in the United States for foreign countries to try and influence the outcome of elections by funding candidates.

Naturally, Bohlen said he could confirm that Saudi Arabia has provided no funding to Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. The question is now that the cat is out of the bag, can others? For the record, we find the story that someone would hack the Jordanian News Agency to insert a boring interview with a Saudi crown prince, hard to believe and if anything, the involvement of the Podesta Group dramatically increases the odds that what the Saudi prince revealed may have been the unvarnished truth.

We concluded by saying that "we leave it up to readers to decide how credible the Podesta-inspired explanation by Petra is that someone would hack the Jordanian news agency just to insert an interview with the Saudi deputy crown prince, which said nothing inflamatory, or defamatory, but merely made reference to just how much money the Saudis had spent on getting Hillary elected.

For now, the Clinton campaign has avoided any outside focus whether the Saudis have indeed ilegally funded it by millions of dollars, meaning the Podesta Group has done its job. However, the ironic twist is that with Manafort having become the fall guy for the Ukraine lobbying and corruption scandal, the very Podesta Group which is the stalwart defender of Hillary's presidential campaign, run incidentally by the brother of the firm's founder, is now being investigated in a totally separate matter.

Alas, if the recent interaction between the FBI and Hillary Clinton is any indication, we doubt much more will be revealed, and this latest scandal will quickly quiet down, even if it appears that Democrats were as involved in Ukraine illegal lobbying as Paul Manafort himself. Finally, we wonder if now that the media is so clearly focused on Ukrainian money flows into the US, if it will just as ardently pursue a story first reported last March by the WSJ which revealed that the Clinton Foundation had received millions of dollars from a Ukrainian oligarch who between and had been pushing for closer ties to the European Union:.

Between and , including when Mrs. It was created by Mr. Pinchuk, whose fortune stems from a pipe-making company. He served two terms as an elected member of the Ukrainian Parliament and is a proponent of closer ties between Ukraine and the European Union. In , Mr.

Several alumni are current members of the Ukrainian Parliament. Alas, we doubt that anyone in the media will pursue allegations that a Ukraine billionaire was funding the Clinton Campaign - with a very specific goal in mind - with the same effort as it did to show how Paul Manafort had been in bed with Pinchuk's number one opponent. However, with seemingly nothing in the world capable of impairing the relentless grind tighter in spreads as everything trade is now merely frontrunning future ECB purchases, Martin does point out something worth contemplating, namely " that CSPP could quickly become its own worst enemy if it leads to a rapid rise in releveraging.

Many of the obstacles then to European take-privates — such as the prevalence of government shareholdings chart 4 — are still relevant today. And the LBO rumour mill was often enough to drive credit spreads of a highlighted company much wider. As we explains, "such has been Draghi's influence across the whole credit market that we are close to seeing our first negative yielding BB-rated bond. But if debt costs for speculative grade companies become "inverted", then the economics of LBOs will be transformed, and the quality of the assets they are buying will become secondary.

We see a growing risk that another private equity cycle emerges in Europe now, and the severe rating deterioration that LBOs pose would become the greatest challenge to central banks' credit buying. To emphasize this point, the BofA strategist, in Chart 5, shows the most negative yielding corporate bond or the smallest if positive over time in each rating category. The concept of negative debt-costs for high-yield companies will transform the traditional economics of LBOs.

Take interest coverage, for instance, as chart 6 shows. Private equity pushed the envelope with interest coverage during the last LBO cycle. Interest coverage fell to just over 2x for European LBOs in But now, with the rapid decline in non-IG yields, note that interest coverage of European LBOs has begun to rise this year.

Which brings us again to the TDC case study, a "very telling" example of what may be about to happen, according to Martin: "TDC was a previous large take-private in late With the cost cutting that has been implemented since, profit margins for the company are now high, so news of a second LBO seems strange.

Low debt costs can alter the equation, however. In other words, we are about to enter a world in which the debt tranche may actually pay itself down, an outcome even more perverse than the recently reported deal where the ECB was directly funding the acquisition of Krispy Kreme by JAB Holdings. Putting it all together, Martin's conclusion is that the inevitable surge in LBOs may prove to be the catalyst that forces the ECB to step back from its frenzied corporate bond-buying pace:.

LBOs would be the biggest headache for Draghi : The point about a take-private is that it rapidly deteriorates credit quality. This, in our mind, would be a very challenging type of event risk for the ECB to manage and could sap their enthusiasm for continuing with CSPP.

Martin is probably right, which means that eventually the ECB will back off much to the delight of Citigroup too, as noted above. However, before that happens, Europe is about to see an unprecedented LBO frenzy as double-Bs go negative.

Which also means that it may once again be time to start buying CDS on some of the most popular LBO candidates, as no matter the ECB jawboning, unless Draghi assures the market that the ECB will monetize everything through D efaulted bonds, event risk such as a major chunk in new leverage will inevitably lead to a spike in default risk, especially if and when names fall out of eligibility.

It also means that the bubble frenzy to purchase Europe's assets with lots of margin, this time by PE shops, is about to get a whole lot more "exciting. One of the best trades of the year in addition to buying beaten down, pre-bankruptcy coal stocks or our ongoing favorite trade, going long a basket of the most shorted names , was buying up distressed energy debt at the start of the year, when fears of mass defaults and liquidity events pushed debt prices to historical low levels.

Some, like Oaktree, bought all they could. However, having ridden the wave higher, those same bottom-pickers are now calling the top. Case in point, KKR is now selling distressed debt that it bought earlier this year, including in the energy sector, as the assets have appreciated more quickly than expected, credit co-head Nat Zilkha said in an interview with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker.

Well, nothing like having jawboning central banks and jawboning OPEC eager to help out the thesis. High-yield debt in the energy sector has rallied 65 percent since its Feb. So now that KKR is taking profits in distressed energy where is the financial conglomerate looking next? It remains to be seen if KKR called the top. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is ready to serve a full term of eight years, despite critics campaigning for him to resign ahead of time.

The UK business secretary said the government is seeking a deal to shield Britain's car manufacturing industry from the impact of Brexit by guaranteeing tariff-free access to Europe. Credit Suisse Group AG is in talks with another bank about a cost-sharing project to unlock a new level of savings as it tries to offset rising costs. And the stakes for both sides are getting higher. Pharmaceuticals giants want the government to plug a 1 billion pound-a-year funding gap that will be created when Britain leaves the EU, as part of a list of demands being drawn up by big business after last week's deal with Nissan.

The EU and Canada signed a free trade deal on Sunday that was almost derailed last week by objections from French-speaking Belgians, exposing the difficulties of securing agreement from 28 member states as Britain prepares for Brexit talks.

The GMB union has accused Uber Technologies Inc of misleading its drivers by claiming last week's tribunal decision on working conditions only affects two drivers involved in the case. Pharmaceutical companies will leave the UK unless the Government and the NHS start to pay for breakthrough drugs, particularly cancer treatments, a senior executive at AstraZeneca Plc said. Long queues formed at Asda check-outs after customers across the UK were unable to pay with their cards.

The company said all of its UK stores were affected "at one point or another" during the day by the problem with its card payment system. Theresa May and her Cabinet ministers are pursuing a "make it up as they go along" strategy for Britain's exit from the European Union, according to John McDonnell. Who would have thought - as recently as two days ago - that a Trump presidency is the best thing for global risk?

And yet, the global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0. Commodity metals soared with copper surging 4. Gold climbed on speculation whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. The euphoria is largely due to the market's hopes of a burst in fiscal stimulus, aka much more debt, which while self-defeating in the long run, is providing a major boost to risk assets for the short-run, as it puts QE potentially back in the picture: after all someone will be needed to monetize the US budget deficit which is expected to once again soar under president Trump.

As Citi strategists note today, "The outcome of the U. Acknowledging these major uncertainties, we expect the new administration to pursue some deregulation, fiscal expansion, and reassess the costs and benefits of free trade.

The combination of policies could be inflationary, quicken the path of Fed hikes and strengthen the dollar. European equities joined a global rally as they headed for their biggest four-day jump since July. Banks surged on prospects of lighter regulation for their U. Government bonds in Europe and Asia slid as the inflation outlook lifted, while corporate-debt sales resumed in Europe as markets stabilized. European shares Wednesday staged their biggest turnaround since March as investors took comfort in his acceptance speech.

The only asset conspicuously not participating in the global ramp was oil, which was little changed after three days of gains. West Texas Intermediate fell less than 0. London time, with lenders reaching their highest levels since March.

Gains in commodities helped send a gauge of miners to its highest since June. Russian aluminum maker United Co. Rusal Plc jumped by the most on record. The yield on German year bonds climbed seven basis points to to 0. Ten-year U. Treasury yields rose two basis points to 2. If we are now seeing a shift in the U. Odds for a Fed interest-rate hike in December climbed to 88 percent, based on U. Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where the fallout from the Presidential Election results is still dictating the state of play in markets.

Asian indices traded higher across the board benefiting from the bullish close on wall Street with the three majors closing the session at highs and in the Dow's case ATH's. The Republican 'clean sweep' of House, Senate and President has also reassured global stock markets.

Japanese Finance Minister Aso said he wants to avoid FX intervention and the government will not intervene in FX except in exceptional cases. Likewise in Europe, Donald Trump continues to dictate price action across asset classes, with equities continuing to strengthen, as was seen in the second half of yesterday's trade.

Elsewhere, fixed income markets have seen European paper follow their US counterparts, with Bunds retaking the In commodities, industrial metals rose as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Copper surged 4. Gold climbed as traders speculated on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when policy makers meet next month. Bullion rose 0. Oil was little changed after three days of gains. In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed losses to advance 0. Trump has pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and curb illegal immigration by building a wall along the U.

The yuan slipped to a six-year low amid concern Chinese exports will also suffer. On today's calendar, one event worth highlighting though and which could be interesting now is the scheduled 30y Treasury auction this evening. In the midst of the hugely volatile moves yesterday, the 10y auction was reported as the weakest, based on the bid to cover ratio of 2. Away from that, the data docket today contains France wage data and IP this morning followed by initial jobless claims and the October Monthly Budget Statement across the pond this afternoon.

To expand further on what I was discussing in yesterday's EMR after Trump and the Republican's clean electoral sweep, I must say that this is the most positive I've felt on the medium-term prospects for US growth for perhaps a decade.

As a 'secular stagnationist' this is as much a relative and a nominal GDP story as it is an absolute and real GDP view but at least we'll likely to see a change in policy. Policy should now be skewed towards reflation at a fiscal level. However as a caveat the outcome is probably also potentially dangerous for growth as a Trump presidency has more risk of going spectacularly wrong than most others given his inconsistent approach to policy in the lead up to the election and his total lack of political experience.

There was a great quote on Bloomberg last night from Sarah Binder - a political science professor at George Washington University - who said that "In every conversation I have about a President Trump there is an asterisk of unpredictability". This certainly rings true. There are still some doubts as to whether he has his party fully behind him although the clean sweep may mean Republicans are happy to loosen the purse strings now they are in full control and can get the credit regardless of any doubts over Trump.

The other problem with Trump are his international views migration, trade and we stand by our September long-term study view that Globalisation is going to be in full retreat over the years ahead which has longer-term global growth and stability risks. The link to "An Ever Changing World" where we articulated our view of the turn in the super cycle meaning higher yields, higher inflation, more fiscal spending and less globalisation is at the end of today's piece.

Back to Trump, he also has non-economic policies that could be divisive if he follows through on his campaign rhetoric. So a leap into the unknown in some respects. I would stress that Trump will likely need the Fed over the years ahead though and he's not been their biggest fan.

A persistent unfunded fiscal deficit could push yields up to levels that the debt ladened global economy would find overly negative. For expansionary fiscal policy to work in a world of heavy debt I do think you need a central bank willing or forced to buy government bonds.

If not what's the incentive for the bond market to buy into an unfunded reflation boost. So we could see a strange situation in where the US is pursuing big expansionary fiscal policy but with no QE whereas Europe will continue to do big QE but without notable fiscal expansion. So yesterday's What the Fed looks like in 18 months is also a big question. The Republicans and Trump have been very keen to clip their wings and the spectre of them becoming less independent - perhaps after Yellen's term ends in - must surely be a possibility.

Anyway we are writing our outlook at the moment and obviously this result is making us stress test our views for the next year or so. Any thoughts welcome from our readers on what this victory means. We reserve the right to change our mind on things by the time the outlook is out but this certainly shakes things up for ! We discussed yesterday that we thought the result would initially bring risk-off followed by a reversal as the positive fiscal prospects would come into view. Trump's conciliatory acceptance speech was probably the main catalyst.

That daily range is the highest since August although if we look at the magnitude of the selloff in percentage terms Volatility at its finest. Staying with rates, the Treasury curve steepened aggressively with the 2y30y spread widening In Europe the moves for sovereign bond markets, while still weaker, were slightly less spectacular. That was a 1. Over in equity markets the incredible turnaround was more evident in the US futures market given Trump fears peaked early in the Asia session.

Dow futures swung in a 1, point range after initially plummeting points before then swinging to a point gain. The high-to-low was 2. Credit was much the same. In Europe indices ended little changed with Main swinging in a 5bps range Xover swinging in a 20bp range.

The other markets to highlight were commodities and currencies. Finally in currency markets the standout was the Mexican Peso which at one stage was The Swiss Franc finished Credit markets have made a similar turnaround while US equity index futures are little changed in the early going. Needless to say miners have had a very strong morning. The infrastructure story is kicking in. Meanwhile, away from the market moves, the remaining newsflow has been largely consigned to watching the political response globally.

WORLD STAR BETTING GIRNE CYPRUS

At the moment the Fed look like they have super powers. A week on from a hawkish set of FOMC minutes one would have to say that they have won the first round in the fight to raise rates in June or July. We're still not convinced they'll be able to and it seems reasonable to expect tougher rounds in the battle ahead but it's worth highlighting the performance of a few global variables since just before the minutes were released last Wednesday night.

Interestingly moves in Europe have actually been more impressive although the positive developments around Greece and the ECB commentary concerning banks has largely fuelled that, along with the weaker Euro So you have to imagine that moves in the last week or so will be of reasonable comfort to the Fed. Indeed crude stockpiles were reported as falling 4. At the same time US output was also reported as falling for an 11th consecutive week.

They are currently hovering around bps in spread terms which compares to the wides in spread of bps back in February. Moving on. When combined with the manufacturing data earlier in the week, the flash composite print of The business climate reading was up a full point from April to This means that the business climate reading has now made up more than half of the decline it had seen from November Staying in Europe and a bit more on the Greece announcement 24 hours ago.

He also said that his view was unchanged relative to that in March when he indicated that two hikes this year could be appropriate. Over in the US the big focus will be on the durable and capital goods orders for April. They do however expect ex-transportation orders to be flat for the month continuing the trend of weak business investment. After yesterday's two key events, the ECB and OPEC meetings, ended up being major duds, the market is looking at the week's final and perhaps most important event of the week: the May payrolls report to generate some upward volatility and help stocks finally break out of the range they have been caught in for over a year.

However, even today's jobs number will likely be skewed as reported previously as a result of the Verizon strike which is said to trim some 35, jobs from the headline print, casting anything the BLS reports today in doubt. On the other hand, the Verizon strike is precisely why the consensus expectations going into today is , not ,; however if even that number is missed, economists will promptly forget that they had already factored the Verizon strike in their calculations.

That said, if futures are expecting a miss, they don't show it and most asset classes, from stocks to commodities, are heading toward the monthly U. The market may rise a bit but it could be a tug of war after that as investors scrutinize what impact the data may have on the possibility of higher interest rates. The Stoxx Europe Index added 0. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0. The gauge bottomed this year at a closing low of Traders are looking out for any trends in economic data for clues on how monetary policy will play out. As Bloomberg writes , "financial markets have become emboldened that the economy is strong enough to withstand a hike this month or next. Fed Governor Lael Brainard will be the first U. In Europe traders have been somewhat in a state of limbo this morning, recovering from the ECB and OPEC non-drama yesterday, while also looking ahead to the risk event of the day in the form of the nonfarm payroll reports.

Energy names are among the best performers this morning, benefiting from upside in the commodity complex, with WTI trading back above USD Bunds trade near contract highs this morning, continuing the trend seen in the wake of the slightly underwhelming ECB press conference and projections, with further downbeat news this morning coming from the Bundesbank in the form of downgrades to both growth and inflation forecasts.

Participants also saw mixed services and composite PMIs, with both final readings from France as well as the German Composite missing on expectations, although the Eurozone wide figure did see a modest beat. In FX, there is little to read into this morning's FX trade, apart from the heavy tone in the EUR, with the market going into meeting yesterday looking for a more upbeat outlook than was alluded to by governing council head.

The inflation and growth forecasts were disappointing in this respect, and this has only been exacerbated by the Bundesbank announcement this morning of downward revisions in Germany's equivalent stats. All hangs on the US data later today, but there may be some confusion over the impact of the Verizon strikes. Euro zone retail sales lower than expected, but EU composite PMIs higher in the final read, but weakness seen in the French numbers.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0. The Number Cruncher Politics website is calculating a Brexit probability of The rand slipped 0. In commodities, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0. Brent crude added 0. The third drop in U. Zinc rose for a seventh day for its longest rising streak in almost two years amid continued speculation of a raw materials shortage, rising with copper and aluminum.

Net-long positions in LME futures for the metal are close to an month high seen in May, indicating that investors continue to bet on a rally. Soybean futures climbed 1. Prices surged Thursday amid forecasts for dryer weather in the U. On today's calendar in the US, the big release is the payrolls print and other components of the May employment report.

In particular the ISM services reading will be under the spotlight, with current expectations of a 0. Away from the data expect there to be the usual focus on the Fedspeak with Evans due to speak this morning in London along while Brainard who is expected to speak in the early evening. Both are scheduled to speak on the economy and policy. So here we go again. Another payroll Friday has been reached.

By my crude calculations this morning I think today's might be the th of my career. Interestingly they've only averaged 95k over this whole period but this number is heavily skewed by the recessions. I wonder what the probabilities of me writing this by the time my th comes along.

By then a robot will likely be the author which is ironic to discuss on employment day. In preparation for this main event, yesterday saw ADP report a k private payroll gain in May - exactly in line with expectations. There was no evidence that the Verizon strike impacted the number.

However the BLS strike report suggests that payrolls are likely to show a 35k impact from the striking Verizon workers which is why consensus is at k not k - the 3 month trailing average. DB is at k on concerns weaker growth and profits will dampen employment. It was those moves in Oil yesterday which dictated much of the market direction for risk on both sides of the pond.

Indeed the index hit its lows for the day That puts the index now at a seven-month high. Rates-wise US 10y Treasury yields dipped a few basis lower to close below 1. There were similar moves in Europe where 10y Bund yields were down 2bps and at 0. Switching over to the latest in Asia where markets are closing the week on a more mixed note. The Shanghai Comp The Caixin services PMI edged down 0. The overall tone of meeting was one of confidence and patience about the new policies being implemented before any real conclusions are drawn.

First, the UK referendum result. Third, the exchange rate. The ECB Council continues to expect the exchange rate to weaken thanks to divergent monetary policy cycles. If Brexit occurs, he expects further policy easing from the ECB and for this to occur relatively quickly.

That brings us to the CSPP then and some of the finer technical details released by the ECB yesterday after the programme was confirmed as starting on the 8th June. We understand this to mean then that insurers and REITS are eligible as previously expected, but the newly added condition eliminates brokers, securities firms and asset managers.

Meanwhile, the Eurosystem can hold onto fallen angel bonds, i. The bonds purchased by the Eurosystem will be available for borrowing and their list will be published weekly. More details on this are in the report published by Michal Jezek in my team which should have hit your emails a short time ago. Staying on the central bank theme, there was also a little bit of Fedspeak for markets to digest yesterday.

One of the more dovish voters on the committee, Tarullo said that the Brexit vote is bringing alot of uncertainty and is a factor that he would consider in his policy outlook. Tarullo also spoke on the subject on banking regulation and said that he expects stress tests for the bigger US banks to get stricter in the near term. With regards to the other data yesterday, initial jobless claims in the US last week were down a modest 1k to k vs.

The other data yesterday came in the form of the NY ISM survey which turned a few heads with its near 20pt decline in the index to Euro area retail sales for April are also due to be released this morning. Over in the US the big release is the aforementioned payrolls print and other components of the May employment report. Away from the data expect there to be the usual focus on the Fedspeak with Evans 8. Every year, the world's richest and most powerful business executives, bankers, media heads and politicians sit down in some luxurious and heavily guarded venue, and discuss how to shape the world in a way that maximizes profits for all involved, while perpetuating a status quo that has been highly beneficial for a select few, even if it means the ongoing destruction of the middle class.

We are talking, of course, about the annual, and always secretive, Bilderberg meeting. Workers erect a barricade outside the Taschenbergpalais hotel in Dresden. The Taschenbergpalais hotel in Dresden - the venue of "Bilderberg " which starts tomorrow and continues until June 12 - is filling up with pistol-packing plainclothes security as the last guests are ushered out.

The frowning gunslingers head up and down the corridors with their hotel maps, trying door handles and checking the lay of the land while, down in the hotel lobby, corporate goons gather in muttering huddles. A glimpse at what is about to unfold: according to the local newspaper DNN , at least police officers will be surrounding the venue for the three days of the talks.

No one gets in or out without the right lanyard. As Ed Balls remembers only too well, from that awkward business in Copenhagen. Inside the security cordon, the final nervy tweaks are being made by conference staff. A single ray could be fatal. But why? On its official website , Bilderberg attempts an answer. Dialogue which is designed to foster dialogue. Even if that something is chlamydia.

Taschenbergpalais hotel in Dresden. What is really discussed is how to take the existing trends in the world, some favorable, some undesired, and mold them in such a way as to create even more wealth for the world's 0. As noted above, the official list of "key topics " to be discussed is both broad quite vague and includes:.

That's just for public consumption. After all, who needs massive concrete blocks and police officers for protection to discuss "technological innovation" - better yet, just open up the session to the press and public. Of course, that won't happen, because the real agenda must remain under wraps.

However one can infer from the agenda and some of the names on the participant list what the group will be discussing in more detail. As a result, it will now have to spend much more time dealing with the damage control.

Brexit will be another major topic. With the British referendum vote to leave the EU taking place in just two weeks, and with David Cameron getting concerned , a vote to secede threatens the future of the European Union federal superstate that was the brainchild of Bilderberg in the first place.

Studies have shown that wealth inequality increases the likelihood of mass social disorder. Furthermore, as the Fed itself admitted recently, it is the Fed, by way of manipulating markets higher, that has been an instrumental catalyst behind record wealth inequality. Indeed, Bilderberg operates under Chatham House Rules, which means that none of the participants are able to reveal any comments made during the conference.

They act like abuse victims. You remember? Yes, of course you do. Now off you go. So what do the politicians and public officials get from the deal? For those who don't use the event as a glorified LinkedIn mixed for billionaires, the motive is far simpler: make even more money. In this regard the Guardian's amusing conclusion is spot on:. And if you learn to play the game, to fit in with the in crowd, then maybe, like Blair, you can end up with a cushy job with US investment bank JP Morgan.

Ultimately, what is decided will never see the light of day, or rather it won't over the next 4 days. Instead it will emerge as official policy, fiscal but mostly monetary as central bankers live to serve the Bilderberg elite, laws, regulations, and social norms.

And if history is any indicator, it will only make the current global situation even worse. Below is a full list of this year's participants :. Finally, for those who are skeptical about the massive power and reach of the relatively small Bilderberg group, here is a recent graph which shows the members' connections to virtually every important and relevant organization, company and political entity in the world.

As reported previously , starting today politicians, bankers, influential leaders, chiefs of major global businesses, even actors and pundits will meet at the 64th Bilderberg meeting, set to take place over the next three days at the Taschenbergpalais Hotel in Dresden, Germany, where the official agenda will be quite different from what will really be discussed read this for a full breakdown. Petraeus, Philip M. The conference, surrounded by tight hundreds of heavily armed guards and concrete blocks, is notoriously secretive in its discussions which take place under Chatham House rules nothing can be revealed , and regularly attracts demonstrations against what critics describe as a global meeting of western capitalists, politicians and academics who wield great power behind the scenes.

Daniel Estulin, author of "The True Story of the Bilderberg Group" describes the meetings as "a shadow world government…. As reported yesterday, among the dozens of guests included this year are Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman, Alphabet Inc. And while there is no way to report from inside the hotel, courtesy of social media we at least managed to get a glimpse of the world's richest and most powerful people as they made their way to the inner sanctum. HelenGoodmanMP did you know that 2 young, peaceful British protesters have just been arrested outside Bilderberg?

Bit rich considering the size of the Airbus tent inside. But nothing to write home about, and certainly nothing to derail the procession which saw the following special arrivals:. James A Johnson GoldmanSachs board on another of his walkabouts. He just won't stay put in the hotel! Bilderberg pic.

Airbus chief Thomas Enders not ashamed to show his face at Bilderberg. Jack Black arrives at Bilderberg Kissinger's pet academic Niall Ferguson. The quote "libertarian" Peter Thiel just arrived at Bilderberg pic. Jose Manuel Barroso arrives at Bilderberg. Vernon Jordan, Bilderberg's token black guy, arrives in Dresden. We encourage readers to read the full interview here , however one item that caught our attention was that in explaining how KKR came into existence, Kravis also enlightened readers on how the "20" came to be in the 2-and compensation model that is the industry standard today.

JK Take me back to How did the whole KKR experiment begin? But the catch was they wanted to be the investment committee. But if you do invest, we want 20 percent of the profits. JK How did you come up with 20 percent, which became the industry standard? Interestingly, sometimes there are no complex mathematical formulas or deep thoughts for how things come to be, on occasion, it really is just that simple.

Pound sterling was trading at 1. Whether the murder of Jo Cox was the catalyst that has turned around the outcome of the Brexit referendum is unclear, however it is certain that the moment when the news of her shooting and subsequent death hit is when cable was at it lows.

Since then it has soared without looking back, as the momentum in the Leave camp has gone, replaced by a poll showing "Remain" leading by three percentage points before the referendum on Thursday. As a result, as we showed last night , global equities and US futures rallied and the pound strengthened the most since , soaring by pips since the Friday close as polls signaled the campaign for the U.

K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U. Treasuries and gold slumped. The yen fell for the first time in seven days. Oil rallied with industrial metals as gold retreated from a five-month high. With Leave ascendent going into Thursday, and with campaigning suspended into Saturday, this is what has happened since for those who missed it.

There were four notable polls over the weekend. YouGov have compiled two which straddle Thursday's campaign suspension. So it could be said some momentum shift had occurred before Thursday's campaign suspension but after it there seems to be further evidence. This confirms the above trends. But does one poll determine the outcome of the referendum? This really could still go either way. The referendum is being watched by governments, central banks and investors around the world amid worries that a U.

For now, however, whether it is another massive short squeeze or a genuine elimination of Brexit as a concerns, global stocks have soared: the Stoxx Europe Index climbed 2. Germany's Dax was higher by 3. BHP Billiton Ltd. Japanese exports dropped in May for the eighth month in a row, data showed Monday, before a speech by central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. WTI crude climbed 1. Looking at regional market, we start in Asia where stocks shrugged off last Friday's US weakness, with most equity markets trading in positive territory following strength in crude and optimism for the Remain camp ahead of the EU referendum.

The early downside came despite a significant CNY bIn liquidity injection by the PBoC, with demand for stocks dampened after firm China Home Prices data increased the appeal for property investment and also provides less room for China to ease policy. In Europe, we have seen a strong bout of risk on sentiment across Europe, following the latest batch of referendum polls shifting towards the 'remain' camp.

Germany's DAX has exploded some 3. As well as this energy names have also performed well today given strength seen in the energy complex. In terms of fixed income, Bunds are trading lower this morning with yields seeing a reprieve amid the rally in equities as Brexit fears abate, as such the yr benchmark has slipped below In FX, the pound strengthened against all 31 major peers, rising 2 percent versus the dollar, its biggest surge since The euro appreciated 0. The yen dropped 0.

Yen for his ability to influence the exchange rate in the late s, predicts the exchange rate will gradually strengthen more than 4 percent toward by the end of the year. It was pegged at through the end of last week, when three-month non-deliverable forwards were trading at In commodities, gold slipped 1. As of June 14, money managers held the second-biggest bet ever that bullion would rally further, according to U. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1. Nickel led gains among industrial metals, rallying 1. Copper added 0. Corn dropped 1. Department of Agriculture is set to release its U. Those with a nervous disposition might want to hide this week as we have what could be a highly stressful event. Yes it episode 9 of the current series of Game of Thrones tonight.

If previous series are anything to go by, the penultimate installment is the one to leave you shocked and emotionally drained. I've seen the title for tonight's episode which can't be repeated in a family daily and everything suggests an epic! No spoilers though please as I'll be watching a day late due to England playing tonight. I'm a bit stressed writing this as I can't remember if I told my wife the football was delaying GoT for a day.

Onto the actual main event of the week, if one believes the UK EU Referendum polls are a good reflection of sentiment, then this weekend it seems like the 'Remain' campaign have managed to undo the momentum that the 'Leave' campaign seemed to have built before last Thursday's suspension of debate and activity. There have been four notable polls over the weekend. Interestingly YouGov have compiled two which straddle Thursday's campaign suspension.

As we type the current odds are However Alan thinks that there are a number of other factors which make the response more symmetrical including the sizable over hedging for GBP downside extreme moves, related spec positioning and downside protection from the BoE, amongst others. Indeed this more balanced view is also shared by DB strategists in other asset classes. Overall though it feels like the general conclusion is one of much more balance in terms of pricing either way although clearly that could change quickly depending on the progression of remaining polls into Thursday.

Normally credit and equity performance is linked, at least in terms of direction. However this is turning into a rare year. See the report an hour before this one for more. The other big news from the weekend has come out of India where the Governor of the RBI, Raghuram Rajan, has announced that he is to stand down at the end of his current term in September.

While his future had become a more talked about subject in recent weeks, it still throws open a period of uncertainty for India at a time where the UK EU referendum vote and Fed watching have markets already on edge. Indian equity markets are back to flat after initially opening in the red. Elsewhere however and China aside, markets are relatively positive this morning. Recapping Friday, markets finished the week on fairly divergent paths on each side of the Atlantic.

Sentiment was greatly improved in Europe with the suspension of the UK EU referendum campaign seemingly helping. Over in the US however that positive sentiment never really carried over and markets were in the red from the off. This more than offset the big gains from commodity sensitive names. Those moves coincided with another weak day for the US Dollar.

St Louis Fed President Bullard confirmed that he favours only one more rate hike through to come this year and declined to give a long-run projection. Clearly this is a huge change in stance from someone who was previously considered one of the most hawkish members of the committee. The only releases of note came in the afternoon in the US when it was revealed that housing starts declined less than expected in May The big event next week however is away from the data and of course reserved for Thursday with the UK EU referendum vote.

In the lead up there are various TV debates scheduled each evening. As well as that, we will also hear from Fed Chair Yellen this week when she is set to address the Senate on Tuesday 3. Randi Weingarten is the president of the American Federation of Teachers, and is a name that hedge fund managers and those on Wall Street are beginning to learn quite well.

About a decade ago, some liberals joined conservatives in pushing to expand charter schools. As the WSJ reports , those efforts received financial support from hedge fund managers including Dan Loeb, Paul Singer and Paul Tudor Jones, who together kicked in millions of dollars toward the effort. Some involved in the effort to push for the expansion of chartered schools portrayed public school teachers and their unions as obstacles to improving education, and thus the reputation of unions took a beating.

Enter Randi Weingarten. Weingarten was elected president of the American Federation of Teachers in , and her aim was to restore public trust in public school teachers and their unions. Although the unions themselves control where the money is invested, Weingarten can make recommendations.

Weingarten instructed investment advisers at the federation's Washington headquarters to sift through financial reports and examine the personal charitable donations of hedge fund managers, focusing on those who want to end defined benefit pensions, and entities backing charter schools and the overhauling of public schools.

In early , the union federation published a list of roughly three dozen Wall Street asset managers it says donated to organizations that support causes opposed by the union, and the federation wanted union pension funds to use the list as a reference guide when deciding where to invest or not invest their money.

The Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, a think tank that supports increasing school choice and replacing defined benefit pension plans with k -type plans is one of the groups that wound up on the list. Lawrence Mone, its president, said the tactics amount to intimidation, and that "I don't think that it's beneficial to the functioning of a democratic society. Asness was removed from the list. Asness continued to serve on the board of The Manhattan Institute, however in September of last year an aide to Weingarten spoke to a California State Teachers' Retirement System Calstrs official about Asness's continued service - one phone call later and Asness said that he was stepping down from the Manhattan Institute board.

One hedge fund manager has been more combative however - Dan Loeb. A bit more combative is an understatement - Loeb pushed back on Weingarten, and didn't seem to care about the influence she had over where funds were directed. As the WSJ explains. In a March letter to Mr. Loeb, Ms. Loeb emailed Ms.

A week later, Ms. Weingarten wrote back to reiterate that unions were wary of investing with Mr. In response, Mr. The meeting was called off, and Mr. Loeb was added to the list. At a fundraising dinner that May for his charter-school group, Mr. Loeb said recently in a written statement. Around that same time, a giant billboard appeared above Times Square that was not kind to Weingarten - perhaps not a coincidence. After the billboard, Weingarten and the union group launched an advocacy group called Hedge Clippers, that lobbied against proposed New York legislation to increase the charitable deduction for donations to public and private schools.

The group also published a report called "All That Glitters Is Not Gold," that among other things, claimed that the high fees charged by hedge funds made them unattractive investments. Furthermore, the union group is funding a campaign to eliminate the carried interest tax rate on investment income earned by asset managers, as well as filing a class action lawsuit accusing 25 Wall Street firms of violating antitrust law and manipulating Treasury bond prices.

Other large pension funds such as an Illinois public pension fund and one of New York City's public pension funds have cut hedge fund investments. However, Loeb may have had the last laugh, as when Weingarten tried to convince a large Ohio fund to follow suit, it voted to remain invested in hedge funds, including Loeb's. Regardless of a stance on this topic, this battle between Weingarten and the targeted hedge funds such as Third Point will remain an epic story to watch unfold.

Also, as readers know, pension funds are severely underfunded , and given that NIRP and other insane central bank policies have created an environment where risk assets are a necessity if one wants to generate higher target returns, hedge funds may be one avenue that pension funds need to consider, whether the funds support charter schools or not. Stocks rose around the world, led by emerging-markets, as oil climbed further after its best week since April and traders pushed back bets on higher U.

While Developed Markets have been sleepy, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed to the highest level in more than a year, with Chinese equities rallying the most since May on speculation of more property takeovers. The MSCI emerging markets gauge rose 0.

The ruble strengthened as oil extended gains on speculation that producers will revive talks to stabilize prices. The oil price recovery is supportive for sentiment too. Oil prices rebounded in early trading, forcing more shorts to cover after comments by the Russian Energy Minister Novak who stated that Russia are consulting with Saudi Arabia, other countries to achieve oil market stability.

However, the initial euphoria has fizzled and oil was largely unchanged at last check. Among other notable overnight movers, in addition to the ongoing strength in EMs indices, now up for an 8th consecutive day, China's Shanghai Composite jumped 2. The DAX Index rose as much as 0. Volkswagen added 1. Glencore Plc dragged raw material producers lower. Later today, the latest NY Fed "Empire Manufacturing" report is expected to rise modestly by 2, after last month's 0.

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia, where sentiment was lifted by the upside in WTI and Brent crude futures with the latter making a break above USD The Nikkei JGB's continued to extend on losses despite the soft Japanese GDP readings, with some attributing the weakness to Fridays comments where Japan Post announced that they have reduced their JGB holdings again and may invest around half of their JGB redemptions in foreign bonds.

In a very quiet morning European equities have traded higher, with volumes very thin due to Assumption day. In fixed income market, today sees no major supply and amid the light newsflow Bunds have been trading flat throughout the morning, while today saw 10 year Gilt yields continue their decline to reach 0. Also of note, today we shall be looking out for the BoE's year Gilt purchase, which could garner particular focus given that last week saw the BoE fail to purchase the full allotment.

In FX, the dollar weakened against most of its major peers amid receding chances of a Fed rate increase this year. The greenback fell 0. Sterling reached a one-month low Monday before reports on inflation, retail sales and unemployment benefit claims for July, which will provide more detail on how the economy is faring after the June 23 Brexit referendum. Hedge funds were the most bearish on the pound on record in the week ended Aug. The Mexican peso advanced 0. In commodities, both WTI and Brent crude futures enter the North American crossover in positive territory, albeit off best levels.

Initial upside for prices emanated from comments by the Russian Energy Minister Novak who stated that Russia are consulting with Saudi Arabia, other countries to achieve oil market stability. Gold rose for the first time in three days as the dollar traded near its lowest level since June, boosting demand for a haven. Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0.

In base metals, copper prices in London printed a one-month low as demand concerns continue to hamper prices with price action otherwise relatively contained. British, this week will be where we get our first major glimpse of hard post-Brexit data following a raft of weak sentiment surveys released so far.

I suppose the Euro and Yen have had big bouts of depreciation in the last couple of years without lasting impacts on inflation but the UK imports more relatively. That's financial repression for you. Over the rest of the week the UK highlights are July unemployment Wednesday , retail sales Thursday and the public finance data Friday. The latter being interesting as we edge closer to the Autumn statement where looser fiscal policy is expected.

Staying with data, disappointments in the US on Friday halted the recent rally in equity markets. European credit saw iTraxx Main largely unchanged on the day and the week as a whole, while Crossover tightened by -3bps on the day and by nearly -9bps on the week. US CDX indices were fairly static on the day and pretty much flat on the week.

Soft data appeared to impact rates markets the most as German 10Y and US 10Y yields dropped by -2bps and -5bps respectively on the day, falling by -4bps and -8bps on the week after the post payrolls spike the Friday before. UK yields continued to drop to fresh new lows, with 10Y yields dropping by -2bps on the day and bps on the week. Asian stocks are mostly higher this morning with the Nikkei There is also talk that weak new credit numbers late on Friday, which rounded off a soft monthly data dump from earlier in the day, increases the likelihood of more stimulus before YE.

Digging into the data on Friday now. The US saw a busy session of broadly weak data reinforcing the tepid growth story. July retail sales numbers disappointed 0. Auto sales helped support the headline number as ex-auto sales contracted by This slowdown in consumer spending is certainly concerning given that it was the primary driver of US growth in the past quarter. Producer inflation also unexpectedly fell into deflationary territory in July The UMichigan consumer sentiment indicator for August picked up but less than forecast Inflation expectations for the next year also declined to 2.

Taking a look now at the week ahead. Wednesday brings us labour data for the UK in the form of jobless claims, earnings and unemployment numbers. Thursday kicks off in Asia with trade data out of Japan. The top political news on Friday was the unexpected resignation of Trump campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, which was the result of emerging revelations that his political consulting firm, DMP International, had orchestrated a covert Washington lobbying operation in the period on behalf of Ukraine's then ruling political party, attempting to sway American public opinion in favor of the country's pro-Russian government which was overthrown in a CIA-orchestrated coup in early Another goal: undercutting American public sympathy for the imprisoned rival of Ukraine's then-president.

At the time, European and American leaders were pressuring Ukraine to free her. Furthermore, under the U. The issue is that neither Paul Manafort, nor his deputy, Rick Gates, disclosed their work as foreign agents as required under federal law. Now if this was the extent of the violations, it would be an open and shut case of potential non-disclosure of lobbying on behalf of a foreign soon to be overthrown government, one which could result in felony charges and potential prison time for employees of DMP International, up to and including Manafort.

Which is why it is clear why Trump had to quickly get rid of Manafort as his ongoing presence was a major risk factor overhanging the entire Trump campaign, one which could even lead to incarceration and ongoing accusations of pro-Russian influence. However, where things get trickier is that in addition to Manafort and his deputy Rick Gates, other, far more prominent firms are also implicated, chief among them the Podesta Group, headed by Tony Podesta - the brother of Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta.

Tony Podesta, the Podesta Group. As reported yesterday , emails obtained by the Associated Press showed that Gates personally directed two Washington lobbying firms, Mercury LLC and the Podesta Group, between and to set up meetings between a top Ukrainian official and senators and congressmen on influential committees involving Ukrainian interests. Gates noted in the emails that the official, Ukraine's foreign minister, did not want to use his own embassy in the United States to help coordinate the visits.

The emails further illustrate how Gates worked with Mercury and the Podesta Group on behalf of Ukrainian political leaders. None of the firms, nor Manafort or Gates, disclosed their work to the Justice Department counterespionage division responsible for tracking the lobbying of foreign governments. And this is where the plot thickens, because while the bulk of the press has so far spun the entire Ukraine lobbying scandal, which led to Manafort's resignation, as the latest "proof" that pro-Moscow powers were influencing not only Manafort but the Trump campaign in general who some democrats have even painted of being a Putin agent , the reality is that a firm closely tied with the Democratic party, the Podesta Group, is just as implicated.

In papers filed in the U. Senate, Mercury and the Podesta Group listed the European nonprofit as an independent, nonpolitical client. The firms said the center stated in writing that it was not aligned with any foreign political entity. Sure enough, the chairman of the Podesta Group, Tony Podesta, brother of Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta, repeated the excuse and said his firm believed Gates was working for the nonprofit.

Podesta said he was unaware of the firm's work for the Ukraine's Party of Regions, led by Yanukovych. On Thursday, his firm said it had nothing new to add. We believed he was working for the Centre, as we were hired to do. Now political consultants are generally leery of registering under the FARA, and disclosing foreign government clients, because their reputations tends to suffer once they are on record as accepting money to advocate the interests of foreign governments - especially if those interests conflict with America's.

Moreover, registering under the law would have required Gates, Manafort or the lobbying firms to disclose the specifics of their lobbying work and their efforts to sway public opinion through media outreach. However, now that the FBI is involved, Podesta Group has quickly lawyered up and as a statement by CEO Fritts reveals, the firm has hired an outside legal counsel in anticipatory defense for what may be a significant legal battle for the pro-democratic think tank:.

A quick primer on Tony Podesta : born , he is an American lobbyist best known for founding the Podesta Group. Ed Rendell's reelection campaign. He is closely connected with the Barack Obama White House and has repeatedly been named one of Washington's most powerful lobbyists and fundraisers. An interesting tangent on the power of the Podesta Group was revealed back in in a brief US News expose :. When the White House proved true to its promise of full disclosure by releasing a list of recent West Wing visitors, the headlines went to the big donors like George Soros, the big movie stars like George Clooney, and the mega-union bosses like Andy Stern of the Service Employees International Union.

But to insiders, the list showed something else: The power of the Podesta family. By comparison, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made one visit. For John Podesta, the rise as one of Washington's influentials is richly deserved. He runs the Center for American Progress, which has become a very influential policy shop for the Democrats. He also was Obama's transition chief.

As for the Podesta lobbying husband-and-wife team, their legendary influence has now been stamped with the White House seal of approval. The Democratic White House's seal of approval that is. Of course, this is just a small fraction and you can examine the entire list here. Where things get even trickier is when looking at recent disclosures of who we know the Podesta Group has received substantial cash from.

Namely Saudi Arabia. Recall from an April article in The Hill , discussing the fallout from the disclosure of Saudi ties in the Sept 11 terrorist attack, which as reported previously, was initially heavily frowned upon by the Saudis:. The dispute is causing a diplomatic storm for the Obama administration; Saudi Arabia has long been an ally of the U.

During the last few months of , it sent 27 emails, had two phone calls and one meeting with lawmakers and staffers, journalists, and organizations including Human Rights Watch and the Center for American Progress, disclosure forms show.

This is what bin Salman was quoted as saying:. Below is a screenshot of the English report published, and which then was quickly deleted, by the Petra News Agency. However, according to an update by MEE just the next day , a spokesperson for the Podesta Group contacted MEE to say that they work with the Saudi Royal Court and to request a correction to the earlier story that said the Jordanian news agency had deleted the quotes from Prince Mohammed.

Senior global communications specialist Will Bohlen - who, prior to joining Podesta, was chief researcher for a best-selling history of Bill Clinton's presidency - sent a link to a clarification issued by the Petra News Agency which said it was "totally false and untrue" that they had published then deleted the quotes from Prince Mohammed about funding the Clinton campaign.

The agency was surprised to see some media outlets as well as the social media publishing false news that were attributed to Petra. They said that Petra transmitted a news item related to the deputy crown prince of Saudi Arabia and later deleted this news item. This is totally false and untrue.

As we said at the time, " one can see why Podesta would be worried: it is illegal in the United States for foreign countries to try and influence the outcome of elections by funding candidates. Naturally, Bohlen said he could confirm that Saudi Arabia has provided no funding to Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.

The question is now that the cat is out of the bag, can others? For the record, we find the story that someone would hack the Jordanian News Agency to insert a boring interview with a Saudi crown prince, hard to believe and if anything, the involvement of the Podesta Group dramatically increases the odds that what the Saudi prince revealed may have been the unvarnished truth.

We concluded by saying that "we leave it up to readers to decide how credible the Podesta-inspired explanation by Petra is that someone would hack the Jordanian news agency just to insert an interview with the Saudi deputy crown prince, which said nothing inflamatory, or defamatory, but merely made reference to just how much money the Saudis had spent on getting Hillary elected.

For now, the Clinton campaign has avoided any outside focus whether the Saudis have indeed ilegally funded it by millions of dollars, meaning the Podesta Group has done its job. However, the ironic twist is that with Manafort having become the fall guy for the Ukraine lobbying and corruption scandal, the very Podesta Group which is the stalwart defender of Hillary's presidential campaign, run incidentally by the brother of the firm's founder, is now being investigated in a totally separate matter.

Alas, if the recent interaction between the FBI and Hillary Clinton is any indication, we doubt much more will be revealed, and this latest scandal will quickly quiet down, even if it appears that Democrats were as involved in Ukraine illegal lobbying as Paul Manafort himself.

Finally, we wonder if now that the media is so clearly focused on Ukrainian money flows into the US, if it will just as ardently pursue a story first reported last March by the WSJ which revealed that the Clinton Foundation had received millions of dollars from a Ukrainian oligarch who between and had been pushing for closer ties to the European Union:.

Between and , including when Mrs. It was created by Mr. Pinchuk, whose fortune stems from a pipe-making company. He served two terms as an elected member of the Ukrainian Parliament and is a proponent of closer ties between Ukraine and the European Union. In , Mr. Several alumni are current members of the Ukrainian Parliament. Alas, we doubt that anyone in the media will pursue allegations that a Ukraine billionaire was funding the Clinton Campaign - with a very specific goal in mind - with the same effort as it did to show how Paul Manafort had been in bed with Pinchuk's number one opponent.

However, with seemingly nothing in the world capable of impairing the relentless grind tighter in spreads as everything trade is now merely frontrunning future ECB purchases, Martin does point out something worth contemplating, namely " that CSPP could quickly become its own worst enemy if it leads to a rapid rise in releveraging. Many of the obstacles then to European take-privates — such as the prevalence of government shareholdings chart 4 — are still relevant today.

And the LBO rumour mill was often enough to drive credit spreads of a highlighted company much wider. As we explains, "such has been Draghi's influence across the whole credit market that we are close to seeing our first negative yielding BB-rated bond. But if debt costs for speculative grade companies become "inverted", then the economics of LBOs will be transformed, and the quality of the assets they are buying will become secondary.

We see a growing risk that another private equity cycle emerges in Europe now, and the severe rating deterioration that LBOs pose would become the greatest challenge to central banks' credit buying. To emphasize this point, the BofA strategist, in Chart 5, shows the most negative yielding corporate bond or the smallest if positive over time in each rating category. The concept of negative debt-costs for high-yield companies will transform the traditional economics of LBOs.

Take interest coverage, for instance, as chart 6 shows. Private equity pushed the envelope with interest coverage during the last LBO cycle. Interest coverage fell to just over 2x for European LBOs in But now, with the rapid decline in non-IG yields, note that interest coverage of European LBOs has begun to rise this year. Which brings us again to the TDC case study, a "very telling" example of what may be about to happen, according to Martin: "TDC was a previous large take-private in late With the cost cutting that has been implemented since, profit margins for the company are now high, so news of a second LBO seems strange.

Low debt costs can alter the equation, however. In other words, we are about to enter a world in which the debt tranche may actually pay itself down, an outcome even more perverse than the recently reported deal where the ECB was directly funding the acquisition of Krispy Kreme by JAB Holdings. Putting it all together, Martin's conclusion is that the inevitable surge in LBOs may prove to be the catalyst that forces the ECB to step back from its frenzied corporate bond-buying pace:.

LBOs would be the biggest headache for Draghi : The point about a take-private is that it rapidly deteriorates credit quality. This, in our mind, would be a very challenging type of event risk for the ECB to manage and could sap their enthusiasm for continuing with CSPP. Martin is probably right, which means that eventually the ECB will back off much to the delight of Citigroup too, as noted above.

However, before that happens, Europe is about to see an unprecedented LBO frenzy as double-Bs go negative. Which also means that it may once again be time to start buying CDS on some of the most popular LBO candidates, as no matter the ECB jawboning, unless Draghi assures the market that the ECB will monetize everything through D efaulted bonds, event risk such as a major chunk in new leverage will inevitably lead to a spike in default risk, especially if and when names fall out of eligibility.

It also means that the bubble frenzy to purchase Europe's assets with lots of margin, this time by PE shops, is about to get a whole lot more "exciting. One of the best trades of the year in addition to buying beaten down, pre-bankruptcy coal stocks or our ongoing favorite trade, going long a basket of the most shorted names , was buying up distressed energy debt at the start of the year, when fears of mass defaults and liquidity events pushed debt prices to historical low levels.

Some, like Oaktree, bought all they could. However, having ridden the wave higher, those same bottom-pickers are now calling the top. Case in point, KKR is now selling distressed debt that it bought earlier this year, including in the energy sector, as the assets have appreciated more quickly than expected, credit co-head Nat Zilkha said in an interview with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker.

Well, nothing like having jawboning central banks and jawboning OPEC eager to help out the thesis. High-yield debt in the energy sector has rallied 65 percent since its Feb. So now that KKR is taking profits in distressed energy where is the financial conglomerate looking next? It remains to be seen if KKR called the top. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is ready to serve a full term of eight years, despite critics campaigning for him to resign ahead of time.

The UK business secretary said the government is seeking a deal to shield Britain's car manufacturing industry from the impact of Brexit by guaranteeing tariff-free access to Europe. Credit Suisse Group AG is in talks with another bank about a cost-sharing project to unlock a new level of savings as it tries to offset rising costs. And the stakes for both sides are getting higher. Pharmaceuticals giants want the government to plug a 1 billion pound-a-year funding gap that will be created when Britain leaves the EU, as part of a list of demands being drawn up by big business after last week's deal with Nissan.

The EU and Canada signed a free trade deal on Sunday that was almost derailed last week by objections from French-speaking Belgians, exposing the difficulties of securing agreement from 28 member states as Britain prepares for Brexit talks.

The GMB union has accused Uber Technologies Inc of misleading its drivers by claiming last week's tribunal decision on working conditions only affects two drivers involved in the case. Pharmaceutical companies will leave the UK unless the Government and the NHS start to pay for breakthrough drugs, particularly cancer treatments, a senior executive at AstraZeneca Plc said.

Long queues formed at Asda check-outs after customers across the UK were unable to pay with their cards. The company said all of its UK stores were affected "at one point or another" during the day by the problem with its card payment system. Theresa May and her Cabinet ministers are pursuing a "make it up as they go along" strategy for Britain's exit from the European Union, according to John McDonnell.

Who would have thought - as recently as two days ago - that a Trump presidency is the best thing for global risk? And yet, the global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.

Commodity metals soared with copper surging 4. Gold climbed on speculation whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. The euphoria is largely due to the market's hopes of a burst in fiscal stimulus, aka much more debt, which while self-defeating in the long run, is providing a major boost to risk assets for the short-run, as it puts QE potentially back in the picture: after all someone will be needed to monetize the US budget deficit which is expected to once again soar under president Trump.

As Citi strategists note today, "The outcome of the U. Acknowledging these major uncertainties, we expect the new administration to pursue some deregulation, fiscal expansion, and reassess the costs and benefits of free trade. The combination of policies could be inflationary, quicken the path of Fed hikes and strengthen the dollar. European equities joined a global rally as they headed for their biggest four-day jump since July.

Banks surged on prospects of lighter regulation for their U. Government bonds in Europe and Asia slid as the inflation outlook lifted, while corporate-debt sales resumed in Europe as markets stabilized. European shares Wednesday staged their biggest turnaround since March as investors took comfort in his acceptance speech. The only asset conspicuously not participating in the global ramp was oil, which was little changed after three days of gains.

West Texas Intermediate fell less than 0. London time, with lenders reaching their highest levels since March. Gains in commodities helped send a gauge of miners to its highest since June. Russian aluminum maker United Co. Rusal Plc jumped by the most on record. The yield on German year bonds climbed seven basis points to to 0. Ten-year U. Treasury yields rose two basis points to 2.

If we are now seeing a shift in the U. Odds for a Fed interest-rate hike in December climbed to 88 percent, based on U. Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where the fallout from the Presidential Election results is still dictating the state of play in markets. Asian indices traded higher across the board benefiting from the bullish close on wall Street with the three majors closing the session at highs and in the Dow's case ATH's. The Republican 'clean sweep' of House, Senate and President has also reassured global stock markets.

Japanese Finance Minister Aso said he wants to avoid FX intervention and the government will not intervene in FX except in exceptional cases. Likewise in Europe, Donald Trump continues to dictate price action across asset classes, with equities continuing to strengthen, as was seen in the second half of yesterday's trade. Elsewhere, fixed income markets have seen European paper follow their US counterparts, with Bunds retaking the In commodities, industrial metals rose as Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Copper surged 4. Gold climbed as traders speculated on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when policy makers meet next month. Bullion rose 0. Oil was little changed after three days of gains. In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed losses to advance 0. Trump has pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and curb illegal immigration by building a wall along the U.

The yuan slipped to a six-year low amid concern Chinese exports will also suffer. On today's calendar, one event worth highlighting though and which could be interesting now is the scheduled 30y Treasury auction this evening. In the midst of the hugely volatile moves yesterday, the 10y auction was reported as the weakest, based on the bid to cover ratio of 2.

Away from that, the data docket today contains France wage data and IP this morning followed by initial jobless claims and the October Monthly Budget Statement across the pond this afternoon. To expand further on what I was discussing in yesterday's EMR after Trump and the Republican's clean electoral sweep, I must say that this is the most positive I've felt on the medium-term prospects for US growth for perhaps a decade.

As a 'secular stagnationist' this is as much a relative and a nominal GDP story as it is an absolute and real GDP view but at least we'll likely to see a change in policy. Policy should now be skewed towards reflation at a fiscal level. However as a caveat the outcome is probably also potentially dangerous for growth as a Trump presidency has more risk of going spectacularly wrong than most others given his inconsistent approach to policy in the lead up to the election and his total lack of political experience.

There was a great quote on Bloomberg last night from Sarah Binder - a political science professor at George Washington University - who said that "In every conversation I have about a President Trump there is an asterisk of unpredictability". This certainly rings true. There are still some doubts as to whether he has his party fully behind him although the clean sweep may mean Republicans are happy to loosen the purse strings now they are in full control and can get the credit regardless of any doubts over Trump.

The other problem with Trump are his international views migration, trade and we stand by our September long-term study view that Globalisation is going to be in full retreat over the years ahead which has longer-term global growth and stability risks. The link to "An Ever Changing World" where we articulated our view of the turn in the super cycle meaning higher yields, higher inflation, more fiscal spending and less globalisation is at the end of today's piece.

Back to Trump, he also has non-economic policies that could be divisive if he follows through on his campaign rhetoric. So a leap into the unknown in some respects. I would stress that Trump will likely need the Fed over the years ahead though and he's not been their biggest fan. A persistent unfunded fiscal deficit could push yields up to levels that the debt ladened global economy would find overly negative.

For expansionary fiscal policy to work in a world of heavy debt I do think you need a central bank willing or forced to buy government bonds. If not what's the incentive for the bond market to buy into an unfunded reflation boost. So we could see a strange situation in where the US is pursuing big expansionary fiscal policy but with no QE whereas Europe will continue to do big QE but without notable fiscal expansion.

So yesterday's What the Fed looks like in 18 months is also a big question. The Republicans and Trump have been very keen to clip their wings and the spectre of them becoming less independent - perhaps after Yellen's term ends in - must surely be a possibility. Anyway we are writing our outlook at the moment and obviously this result is making us stress test our views for the next year or so. Any thoughts welcome from our readers on what this victory means.

We reserve the right to change our mind on things by the time the outlook is out but this certainly shakes things up for ! We discussed yesterday that we thought the result would initially bring risk-off followed by a reversal as the positive fiscal prospects would come into view. Trump's conciliatory acceptance speech was probably the main catalyst.

That daily range is the highest since August although if we look at the magnitude of the selloff in percentage terms Volatility at its finest. Staying with rates, the Treasury curve steepened aggressively with the 2y30y spread widening In Europe the moves for sovereign bond markets, while still weaker, were slightly less spectacular. That was a 1. Over in equity markets the incredible turnaround was more evident in the US futures market given Trump fears peaked early in the Asia session.

Dow futures swung in a 1, point range after initially plummeting points before then swinging to a point gain. The high-to-low was 2. Credit was much the same. In Europe indices ended little changed with Main swinging in a 5bps range Xover swinging in a 20bp range. SA: south Africa. The north Pacific group uniting both the eastern and western regions, is very strongly shown in Fig. The most unsettling problem relates to the position of the New Zealand species H.

They are distributed over the tree, an outcome seen even more pronounced in analyses of sub-sets of the data not shown. These three species seem to result from individual colonizations of the island as contrasted with a small radiation in this rather isolated region. The basal split of H. The position of the other two taxa is more challenging to interpret.

Haliotis iris is wedged in between the Californian H. The root would then be trace to some general south Indo-Pacific region. The New Zealand H. The root can be traced back to a general Indo-Pacific region. The type species of the genus Haliotis , H. Accordingly, any pertinent taxonomic decisions can not be made at this time.

Some of the disagreement between the area cladogram and the taxon cladogram may be explained by the taxon sampling of the taxon cladogram. Note for instance that the European species H. It may be due to the missing W African H.

Hence, some minor disagreement between the biogeographical and the taxon analysis should not distract from the overall pattern pointing to a broad Indo-Pacific origin postulated by both analytical approaches. Illustrations of species All 56 described species in the family Haliotidae are figured here, along with one species in the process of being described Geiger, ; Owen et al. Those species that have hardly been illustrated are shown in color, the better known species in black and white.

Indications to published illustrations can be found in Geiger a. Some species have distinct juvenile forms, which deserve particular attention. Haliotis iris Figs. However, the subadults lack the characteristic striated muscle scar and the only slightly widened columella may easily be missed. Juveniles lack not only the muscle scar, but also the wide columella, and are often confused with adult H.

The latter, however, has a lighter shell, more subtle cording, and often an undulating dorsal surface. Haliotis midae Figs. In the eastern part the dark red form is found, in the western part the shells of adults are white.

The strong lamellae and the numerous, elevated, but small holes are common to both. The juveniles, on the other hand, have an entirly smooth shell, which is always dark earthy-red in color, the larger tremata are not elevated at all, and the overall shape is more elongated than the almost round adults. Often the nacre in the spire region has an orange tinge, which has lead to misidentifications of juvenile H.

Juveniles of H. Haliotis spadicea also shows a few distinct spiral cords, whereas juvenile H. Haliotis asinina Figs. Juveniles up to a size of 3. Juveniles can not be confused with other abalone species, but often remain unidentified due to the discrete differences to adult shells.

Color variability is extensive in the Haliotidae. I have selected a few particularly well-known cases, but those species that are only shown with a single specimen often show a similar range in their coloration e. Haliotis jacnensis Figs. The major sculptural element are the hollow scales, which start at the suture and extend to a variable degree towards the row of holes Fig. For H. Differences in color pattern are abundant and are presented for H. Haliotis parva Figs.

Such a coloration is now also known from two other South African species, H. Owen, pers. Other sculptural variability is encountered in the European H. Mediterranean populations contain both entirely smooth Fig. The elevation of the spire can also differ markedly Figs. Such differences do not warrant formal recognition at any taxonomic level. Figures and show an intriguing specimen of unknown identity.

It is one of three rather similar specimens in the MNHN ranging in size between 52 and 68 mm. According to the lable they were collected in Shang Hai in The specimens show a unique combination of characters: strong cords with some scales, and irregularly placed and deep folds. These specimens certainly do not represent any of the known species in the area: H. The closest affinity is to H. However, the cording in H. The Shang Hai locality has to be treated with caution, because erroneous locality data abound particularly with 19th century specimens and publications.

To mention but some of the most egregious cases, H. A pathological condition of the Shang Hai specimens can be ruled out, because the three specimens are very similar to one another and do not show any known signs ol accidents or disease, such as laterally shifted row of holes, holes closed out of sequence, strong growth mark, abrupt change in sculpture, thickened shell, blister pearls, or downward growth of aperture.

Bouchet pers. Marine extinction is an overlooked topic cf. Tegner et al. A particular effort to locate photographs of living animals has born fruits as shown in Figs. Many of the species are illustrated here for the very first time including, juvenile H.

Owen et al. Biogeography and the fossil record The area cladogram as well as the taxon cladogram approach both place the origin of the abalone in a generalized Indo- Pacific region. How does this find compare to the fossil record?

The earliest known abalone fossils stem from the uppermost Cretaceous Maastrichian. Both localities certainly do not represent the Indo-Pacific by any stretch of the imagination. A look at the putative sistergroups of the Haliotidae will shed some light on this apparent discrepancy. The Pleurotomariidae or the Trochidae have been proposed as sister groups of the Haliotidae. The Haliotidae have also been placed in a basal polytomy of the Vetigastropoda with an apomorphic Pleurotomariidae - Trochidae clade, as a sistergroup to the Fissurellidae, or in a polytomy with all Vetigastropoda except for its sistergroup the Pleurotomariidae Tillier et al.

The exact date of the split between these lineages will remain uncertain for the foreseeable future. Even molecular clock studies e. Accordingly, the Haliotidae had on the order of million years to alter their distribution pattern from their area of origin. Hence, the incompleteness of the fossil record accounts for the apparent discrepancy between the analytical approach and the fossil evidence.

On top of this major hiatus, a negative taphonomic feedback due to the habitat of abalone and their Figs. Cala St. Maria, Montecristo, Italy. Between rocks and on sand, 3 - 18 m, Very flat form. Preveza, Greece. Vanglis Tzimas, Highly lamellose form. DLG 14 am. Erquy, Brittany, France. Atlantic form of H.

Azores, Portugal. Note more elongated shape and the distinct spiral grooves. Naxos, Sicily, Italy. In rock canyons and open rock fields, 3 - 6 m, IX Appertural view showing variation in spire elevation. Off Busua, small isl. AMNH , 2. Haliotis stomatiaeformis Reeve, Figs. Giardini HUJ Lampedusa HUJ a, 1. Haliotis t. Guernsey Isl. LACM A. Channel Isl. Baie de St. Brieuc MNHN no , 2. Binic, C. Paimpol MNHN no , 1. Lannion MNHN no , 2. Lonent AMNH , 3.

Concarneau MNHN no , 1. Hendaye ANSP , 2. Nantes USNM , 1. Barcelona ANSP , 1. Balearic Isl. Almeria MNHN no , Collohando ANSP , 1. Marseille BMNH Sanary MNHN no , 1. Tropez MNHN no , 2. Near St. Raphael MNHN no , 2. Menton MNHN no , 1. Corse, Sanguinaires Isl. MNHN no , 1. Senigallia MHNG Apulia, T. Elba BMNH , 1. Montecristo, Cala St. Ischia Isl. SBMNH , 1. Sicily SE, T. Vendicari NMBE Tyrrhenian Sea, Panarea Isl.

AMNH , 1. Gallipoli USNM , 4. Lampedusa MHNG , 2. Rovinj MHNG , Istria, S coast Katarina Isl. Krk Isl. USNM , 1. Novi USNM , 1. Privic Isl. Cres Isl. Split DMNH , 4. Dalmatia, Korcula Isl. Makarska AMNH , Kefallina Isl. Poros Isl. DMNH , 5. Spetsai Isl. SBMNH , 2. Samos Isl. Rhodos USNM , 1. Kos Isl. Foca Med. Bizerte DMNH , 1. Casablanca MNHN no , 1. Tetouan MNHN no , 1. Asilah MNHN no , 1.

Dakar USNM , 1. SW Europe to Channel Isl. Tenerife DMNH , 2. Tenerifa, Czuzruy Isl. Salvane Isl. Santa Luzia Isl. Graciosa Isl. BMNH , South African Species Figs. Knysna MHNG , 1. For data see text. Durban NMBE Saldanha Bay, Marcus Isl. Saldanha Bay - Gonubie Richards, Saldanha Bay - Gonubie Jacks, Helena Bay - W Transkei Muller, Haliotis parva Linnaeus, Figs.

Simonstown AMNH , 3. Mosselbaai DMNH , 8. False Bay - Gonubie Richards, Transkei - S Natal Muller, Transkei - KwaZulu Muller, Haliotis spadicea Donovan, Figs. MNHN no , 2. Kleinmond DMNH , 1. Gonubie AMNH , 1. False Bay - Natal Richards, Haliotis speciosa Reeve, Figs.

Port Alfred. ANSP , 1. Algoa Bay NMW, 2. Port Alfred - Natal Jacks, Port Alfred - W Transkei Muller, East African Species Figs. Masira Isl. Aden AMNH , 6: doubtful. Haliotis pustulata Reeve, Figs. Hurghagda, Biological Station EN no , 1. Abu Latt Isl. Aden BMNH no , 1. S of Port Sudan UR , 1. Shells of East African abalone. Haliotis mariae Gray, LACM Muscat, Oman. Bosch Feb. Elat, Israel. Red variation. Pemba, N. Dark specimen with deep spiral ridges similar to those in H.

Haliotis rugosa Lamarck, Denis, Reunion Island. Haliotis unilateralis Lamarck, Specimen with more arched dorsal surface and ledge less pronounced. Compare to Figs. Muscat AMNH , 1. Malindi USNM , 1. Mtwapa NMBE ex S of Mafia Isl. LACM , 2. Dar es Salam, Sinda Isl. USNM , 2. Inhaca Isl. Bazaruta Isl. DMNH , 2. Mayotte BMNH no , 1. Leu LACM , 2: complete. S of Aqaba Mergner, Red Sea Sharabati, as vana.

Haliotis rugosa Lamarck, Figs. Leu LACM , 3, 1 with dried body. N of St. Pierre MNHN no , 1. Haliotis squamosa Gray, Figs. Haliotis unilateralis Lamarck, Figs. Off Elat KAS no : 6. Sinai, Dahab SBS, 1. Safaga RP, 1. Bab-el-Mandeb, ME5 star. Ouaramous Isl. KAS, 1. Gulf of Tadjoura, Moucha Isl. AMNH , 1 [? Port Sudan, Wingate Reef, S. Uzoi AMNH , 3.

Phuket, E Kaew Yai Isl. LACM , 1: complete. Phuket Isl. Goh Sindarar Nua Chance Isl. Paracels MNHN no , 1. Distribution of Indo-Pacific species of Haliotis sp. Geiger , 1. DMNH , 4. Mindoro, Calapan, Baco Isl.

Mindoro, Cabra Isl. Mindanao, off Zamboanga, Bilau-Bilau Isl. Mindanao, off Zamboanga, Bilau Bilau Isl. Mindanao, off Zamboanga, Pangapuyan Isl. Mindanao, Zamboanga, Bilan- bilan Isl. DMNH , 3. Mindanao, Zamboanga, Santa Cruz Isl. LACM , 1. Mindanao, Misamis Occ. Cebu, Olango Isl. Cebu, off Olango, Cawhagen Isl. E Cebu, 2 km S of Olango Isl. ANSP , 2. E Cebu, off Mactan, Hilutungan Isl. Cebu, Bantayan Isl. Cebu, Mad. Mactan USNM , 3. Masbate Isl. Leyte Isl.

Bohol DLG Oli, 3. Bohol, Mantacas Isl. USNM , 3. Palawan, Cuyo Isl. Palawan, Calamian Isl. Palawan, Calamian Group, Manglet Isl. N Basilan Isl. Sulu Archipelago, Siasi and Bongao Isl. ANSP , Sulu Archipelago, Siasi Isl. Off Sulu Archipelago, Jolo Isl. ANSP , 7. Sulu Archipelago, Tabawan Isl. Sulu Archipelago, Dammai Isl.

Negros LACM , 1. Siquijor Isl. Rattakadokoru Isl. DMNH , 1. SW Rattakadokoru Isl. ANSP , 3. Babelthuap Isl. S Babelthuap Isl. E Babelthuap Isl. Reef S of W Babelthuap Isl. Koror Isl. Reef N of Garokottan Isl. ANSP U 1. Ngargersiul Isl. Borneo, Mandi Darrah Isl.

Aroe and Temmber Isl. NHB c, 7. Tanimbar, central N shore Larat Isl. USNM , 2: complete. Lompok DLG Figs. Shells of Indo-Pacific abalone. Haliotis crebrisculpta Sowerby, BMNH Haliotis glabra Gmelin, Kushinoto, Wakayama Preference, Japan. Typical color pattern. II Unkommon dark color pattern. Light color pattern. Haliotis ovina Gmelin, Fig. Site 88, Astrolabe Reef, Fiji. Ventral view. Phuket, Thailand. Typical green variation. Helengeli, Maldives. Haliotis varia Linnaeus, No locality.

Typical specimen of this extremely variable species. Haliotis asinina Linnaeus, Typical green specimen. Anaa, Takapoto, Niau atoll, Tuamotu. Haliotis diversicolor Reeve, Green finely mottled specimen. Red, coarsely mottled specimen. Geiger no , 1: complete. N of Java, Thousand Isl. USNM , 1: complete.

Molluccas, N Toba Isl. Irian Jaya, Biak Isl. Irian Jaya, Biak dock-reef, about 1. SBMNH no , 1. Irian Jaya, Rani Isl. New Brittain Isl. ANSP , 4. Barat Java, S Noekori Isl. Irian Barat, Abroeki Isl. Aitape, Seleo Isl. Trobriand Group, Kiriwina Isl. Bougainville LACM , 4.

Admirality Isl. Malaita, N Malaita Isl. Malaita Isl. Santa Cruz Isl. Santa Cruz Group, Reef Isl. Shortland Isl. Bungana Isl. BMNH , 1. Nggela Isl. Torres Strait, Moa Isl. Lizard Isl. Low Isl. Green Isl.

Cairns, reef DMNH , Cairns, Double Isl. ANSP uncataloged, 4. GBR, Holbourne Isl. Whitsunday Isl. LACM P. Capricorn Isl. Yeppon, Keppel Bay, Keppel Isl. SBMNH , 7. Keppel Isl. Gladstone, Tryon Isl. Lady Elliott Isl. NT: Darnley Isl. Roebourne LACM , 1. King Sound, Sunday Isl. AMNH , 3.

Barrow Isl. SA: St. Cotton, S-most isl. PNG Hinton, Indonesia Dharma, Gosliner et al. Haliotis clatbrata Reeve, non Lichtenstein, Figs. Sandy Isl. Anjouan: BMNH no , 1. Mayotte, Benthedi, N Pamanzi Isl. S32, ANSP , 1: complete. Sentosa KAS no , 1. Palawan, Calamian Group, Batunan Isl. Mindanao, Silino Isl. Lubang KAS no , 1. Arakbesan Isl. Java, Pulau-Pulau Seribu Isl. LACM , 8. Schouten Isl.

LACM , 3: 1 complete. Bali RP no , 2. Dual Tual RP no , 1. Lesser Sunda Isl. Ambon, Nus Laut Isl. DLG 44e, 1: specimen from Baer, Borneo, Sabah, Sipidan, Sapi Isl. KAS no , 1: complete. CASIZ , 1. New Britain RP, 1.

New Brittain, Rabaul RP no , 3. CASIZ , 3. Middle Keppel Isl. Great Keppel Isl. KAS no , 1. South Keppel Isl. Keppel Group, Conical Isl. CASIZ Keppel Bay, Middle Isl. KAS no , 3. Keppel Bay, Keppel Isl. Keppel Bay, Pumpkin Isl. Humpy Isl. Gladstone RP no , 1. Moreton Bay KAS no , 1. Lord Howe Isl. Bunana Isl. BMNH , 2. Touaourou USNM , 1. Bourail AMNH , 1. Ouen Isl. DW99, 1. DMNH 66, 1. Eniwetok, Rigili Isl. Kwajalein KAS no , 1. Kwajalein, Carlson Isl. Rongerik, Bock Isl. Eua Isl. Kepulauan Seribu Stewart, PNG Hinton, as crebrisculpta.

E coast Hinton, as crebrisculpta. New Caledonia Salvat et al. Madagascar, Rodriguez Isl. Haliotis crebrisculpta Sowerby, Figs. Haliotis diversicolor Reeve, Figs. Honshu, Niigota, Sado Isl. S of Tokyo Bay, Hachijo Isl. Tokyo MHNG , 3. Kyushu, Iki Isl. NHB b. Okinawa USNM , 2. Pokine, Santu NHB Taipei USNM , 8. Ha'apai Group, Limu Isl. LACM , 3. Shirahama, Kii Peninsula and S Habe, Haliotis dissona Iredale, Figs. Noumea DMNH , 1. S of Koro Levu Isl. Tongatapu Isl.

Haliotis dohrniana Dunker, Figs. USNM a, 1. SE coast of Santos Isl. Haliotis fatui Geiger, Figs. Vavau USNM no [ex. Haliotis glabra Gmelin, Figs. Luzon, Bataan, Corregidor Isl. Luzon, Bataan, W tip of Corregidor Isl. Luzon, Bantangas, Maricaiban Isl. USNM , Luzon, Bantangas, E of Maricaban Isl.

Luzon, Manila Bay, Caballo Isl. Marinduque DMNH , 1. Mindoro, Calapan, Hoecapilato Isl. Mindoro, Calapan, Nazareto, Silonay Isl. Mindoro, Silonay Isl. NHB b, 5. Negros DMNH , 1. Bohol DMNH , 3. N of Mindanao, Camiguin Isl. Cebu BMNH , 4. SE Masbate, off Talajit Isl. Dalanganem Isl. USNM , 9. Palawan MHNG , 1. Moluccas and Lesser Sunda Isl. Dharma, Haliotis jacnensis Reeve, Figs. DLG no , 1. DMNH , 8.

Emwetok Atoll, Aniyaanii Isl. LACM , 1: with dried body. Eniwetok Atoll, between Parry and Eniwetok Isl. LACM 1 , 2: with dried bodies. Eniwetok, Ragoa and Buiri Isl. Bikini, Namu Isl. Bikini, Bikini Isl. Bikini, Okini Isl. Bikini, Yomyaran Isl. Bikini, Enyu Isl. Rongelap, Kieskiechi Isl. Rongelap USNM , 1. Rongelap, Burok Isl. Rongerik, Latobach Isl. Ailuk Atoll, Ailuk Isl. Wotho Atoll, Wotho Isl. Ujae Atoll, Wotya Isl. USNM , 6.

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Insane Psychopaths are running this world, their great master is the greatest deciever of them all. The fallen Satan. Comes only to kill, steal and Destroy. Picture of the Globalists, planning their One World Order. For total control over the population. June 12, This is a compilation video of Donald Trump's views and opinions being consistent over the past 30 years.

Etiketter: alex jones donald trump video , Blog! June 11, Burnley UK street interview attacked by sharia muslims. June 10, Secretive group positioning itself to profit from upcoming economic meltdown. For the second time in the space of ten years, the powerful Bilderberg group is plotting to trigger a financial collapse, with elitists already positioning themselves to profit from the next economic meltdown.

Over the course of the next two years, that exact scenario played out, culminating in the collapse of Lehman Brothers and a worldwide recession. Noting that the merger of large corporations has created monopolies that make it easier for those in power to control the market, especially with regard to food, Gosling said that cartels were now intent on strangling their competition. Given that Bilderberg discussed an economic collapse almost immediately before it began to unfold ten years ago, the revelation that the clandestine cabal is once again plotting to profit from a financial catastrophe should be taken seriously by everyone who will be impacted by the fallout from another market meltdown.

Follow on Twitter:. Etiketter: bilderberg economic meltdown , Blog! Sergels Torg, Juni June 9, Cote, David M. USA , W. Petraeus, David H. Email This BlogThis! Etiketter: bilderberger sverige , Blog! June 8, Saba Ahmed, a young Muslim woman who attends a US law school, seemed to inflate the numbers of Muslims worldwide and especially here in the US nearly doubling their numbers. However, she was respectful in her question and dealing with Islam to those that will listen ideologically is important.

Assalam o alaikum, peace to you all. I am here to ask you a simple question. I know that we portrait Islam and all Muslims as bad, but there is 1. How can we ever end this war? What I find so amazing is since the beginning of this panel, which we are here about Benghazi attack against our people. We are you to discuss how four Americans died and what our government is doing. We were not here to bash Muslims; you were the one who brought up the issue about most Muslims and not us.

And since you brought it up, allow me to elaborate with my answer. There are 1. Of course, not all of them are radicals the majority of them are peaceful people. That is as big of the United States. When you look throughout history, when you look at all the lessons of history most Germans were peaceful, yet the Nazis drove the agenda and as a result million people died, almost million in concentration camps, 6-million were Jews.

The peaceful majority were irrelevant. When you look at Russia most Russians were peaceful as well, yet the Russians were able to kill million people. When you look at China for example most Chinese were peaceful as well, yet the Chinese were able to kill million people.

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