A plus or a minus can mean different things in different situations. This is explained in more detail below, but the most important thing to be aware of is that negative numbers represent favorites, while positive numbers represent underdogs. The same is true whether you are looking at a spread or a moneyline, but how these numbers are used is very different.
Read on for the complete explanation of each of these concepts. The point spread is the projected number of points that separate two teams. A game with a spread will have a favorite the team expected to win and an underdog the team expected to lose. In the example above, the point spread is 7 points. Patriots are favored by 7 points against the Jets. If they lose by exactly 7 points, the bet is considered a push and is canceled.
If you bet on the Patriots -7, they must win the game outright by more than 7 points. The 3-digit numbers to the far right are the listed prices for these bets. This is also called the odds, vig, or juice. We will cover those in more depth when we talk about money lines. The price of the bet has no impact on which team is favored. Only the plus or minus on the point spread matters. This is handled differently when you bet strictly on the moneyline. A moneyline bet is on a team to win the game outright without a point spread at an adjusted cost.
Just like with point spread betting, the favorite will have negative odds, while the underdog will have positive odds. The difference here is in the price or payout depending on which team you take. A favorite e. Patriots on the money line works just like our bet price example above.
This added risk is why betting the spread is usually more popular, especially on favorites. Underdogs e. This type of bet is on the sum of the points scored by both teams in a game. Odds can also be expressed as a number, by dividing the terms in the ratio — in this case it is unique different fractions can represent the same rational number. Odds as a ratio, odds as a number, and probability also a number are related by simple formulas, and similarly odds in favor and odds against, and probability of success and probability of failure have simple relations.
Analogously, given odds as a ratio, the probability of success or failure can be computed by dividing, and the probability of success and probability of failure sum to unity one , as they are the only possible outcomes. In case of a finite number of equally likely outcomes, this can be interpreted as the number of outcomes where the event occurs divided by the total number of events:.
This is a minor difference if the probability is small close to zero, or "long odds" , but is a major difference if the probability is large close to one. These transforms have certain special geometric properties: the conversions between odds for and odds against resp. They are thus specified by three points sharply 3-transitive.
Swapping odds for and odds against swaps 0 and infinity, fixing 1, while swapping probability of success with probability of failure swaps 0 and 1, fixing. Converting odds to probability fixes 0, sends infinity to 1, and sends 1 to. In probability theory and statistics, odds and similar ratios may be more natural or more convenient than probabilities. In some cases the log-odds are used, which is the logit of the probability.
Most simply, odds are frequently multiplied or divided, and log converts multiplication to addition and division to subtractions. This is particularly important in the logistic model , in which the log-odds of the target variable are a linear combination of the observed variables. Similar ratios are used elsewhere in statistics; of central importance is the likelihood ratio in likelihoodist statistics , which is used in Bayesian statistics as the Bayes factor.
Odds are particularly useful in problems of sequential decision making, as for instance in problems of how to stop online on a last specific event which is solved by the odds algorithm. The odds are a ratio of probabilities; an odds ratio is a ratio of odds, that is, a ratio of ratios of probabilities. Odds-ratios are often used in analysis of clinical trials. Answer: The odds in favour of a blue marble are One can equivalently say, that the odds are against.
There are 2 out of 15 chances in favour of blue, 13 out of 15 against blue. That value may be regarded as the relative probability the event will happen, expressed as a fraction if it is less than 1 , or a multiple if it is equal to or greater than one of the likelihood that the event will not happen. In the first example at top, saying the odds of a Sunday are "one to six" or, less commonly, "one-sixth" means the probability of picking a Sunday randomly is one-sixth the probability of not picking a Sunday.
While the mathematical probability of an event has a value in the range from zero to one, "the odds" in favor of that same event lie between zero and infinity. It is 6 times as likely that a random day is not a Sunday. The use of odds in gambling facilitates betting on events where the relative probabilities of outcomes varied. For example, on a coin toss or a match race between two evenly matched horses, it is reasonable for two people to wager level stakes.
However, in more variable situations, such as a multi-runner horse race or a football match between two unequally matched sides, betting "at odds" provides a perspective on the relative likelihoods of the possible outcomes. In the modern era, most fixed odds betting takes place between a betting organisation, such as a bookmaker , and an individual, rather than between individuals. Different traditions have grown up in how to express odds to customers, older eras came with betting odds between people, today which is illegal in most countries, it was referred as "odding", an underground slang word with origins based in the Bronx.
Favoured by bookmakers in the United Kingdom and Ireland , and also common in horse racing , fractional odds quote the net total that will be paid out to the bettor, should he or she win, relative to the stake. However, not all fractional odds are traditionally read using the lowest common denominator.
Fractional odds are also known as British odds, UK odds,  or, in that country, traditional odds. Odds with a denominator of 1 are often presented in listings as the numerator only. A variation of fractional odds is known as Hong Kong odds. Fractional and Hong Kong odds are actually exchangeable. The only difference is that the UK odds are presented as a fractional notation e.
Both exhibit the net return. The European odds also represent the potential winnings net returns , but in addition they factor in the stake e. Favoured in continental Europe , Australia , New Zealand , Canada , and Singapore , decimal odds quote the ratio of the payout amount, including the original stake, to the stake itself.
Therefore, the decimal odds of an outcome are equivalent to the decimal value of the fractional odds plus one. This is considered to be ideal for parlay betting, because the odds to be paid out are simply the product of the odds for each outcome wagered on. When looking at decimal odds in betting terms, the underdog has the higher of the two decimals, while the favorite has the lower of the two.
Decimal odds are favoured by betting exchanges because they are the easiest to work with for trading, as they reflect the inverse of the probability of an outcome. Decimal odds are also known as European odds , digital odds or continental odds. Moneyline odds are favoured by American bookmakers.
The figure quoted is either positive or negative. Moneyline odds are often referred to as American odds. A "moneyline" wager refers to odds on the straight-up outcome of a game with no consideration to a point spread. In most cases, the favorite will have negative moneyline odds less payoff for a safer bet and the underdog will have positive moneyline odds more payoff for a risky bet.
However, if the teams are evenly matched, both teams can have a negative line at the same time e. In gambling, the odds on display do not represent the true chances as imagined by the bookmaker that the event will or will not occur, but are the amount that the bookmaker will pay out on a winning bet, together with the required stake.
In formulating the odds to display the bookmaker will have included a profit margin which effectively means that the payout to a successful bettor is less than that represented by the true chance of the event occurring. This profit is known as the 'over-round' on the 'book' the 'book' refers to the old-fashioned ledger in which wagers were recorded, and is the derivation of the term 'bookmaker' and relates to the sum of the 'odds' in the following way:.
The true odds against winning for each of the three horses are , and respectively. This represents the odds against each, which are , and , in order. This value of 30 represents the amount of profit for the bookmaker if he gets bets in good proportions on each of the horses.
And the expected value of his profit is positive even if everybody bets on the same horse. The art of bookmaking is in setting the odds low enough so as to have a positive expected value of profit while keeping the odds high enough to attract customers, and at the same time attracting enough bets for each outcome to reduce his risk exposure. A study on soccer betting found that the probability for the home team to win was generally about 3.
It was about 3. Making a profit in gambling involves predicting the relationship of the true probabilities to the payout odds.
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The line, which opened at 2. The total opened at Lamar Jackson finally silenced his critics earning his first career playoff win last weekend leading the Ravens SU, ATS to victory over the Tennessee Titans. Baltimore, on a seven-game winning streak, has posted an amazingly lucrative ATS record over that span. The Ravens could have a huge edge in this matchup - thanks to the most dominant rushing attack in the league led by J.
The rookie running back has scored at least one rushing touchdown 7 in his last six games. Josh Allen and the AFC East champions posted a lucrative ATS record over that span - seeing their amazing eight consecutive covers versus the spread come to an end last weekend when they failed to cover the 7-point spread in their win over Indianapolis. The loss of running back Zack Moss ankle for the remainder of the playoffs leaves Buffalo leaning on Devin Singletary on the ground thus making him a very attractive target in DFS.
A move towards the over has received sharp support as Buffalo played three of their last four to the over; as well as seven of the last 10 The Ravens, who have ramped up their play on the defensive side of the ball, have played three straight to the under after going to the over in their previous five games. The Ravens, who are ATS as an underdog this season, are being looked at as the most likely of the four underdogs by oddsmakers to come away victorious in the Divisional Round.
In addition, Baltimore's head coach John Harbaugh has guided the club to the most playoff road victories in NFL history. The Bills surrendered the sixth most rushing touchdowns 21 to opposing running backs in the regular season - while also allowing an additional rushing score last week in the wild card round to Colts rookie running back Jonathan Taylor.
Buffalo now faces a potent running attack featuring a talented rookie with a nose for the endzone; evidenced by at least one rushing score in six straight games. MLS avoided a work stoppage but pushed the start of its season back by two weeks and intends to have its teams participate in four extra competitions. Brady can afford to lose a Lombardi Trophy or two after winning ring No.
New York Gov. The NBA released a statement about playing the national anthem at games after news broke that the Mavericks omitted it for 13 games. A win over Swansea City sets a new standard for English clubs across all competitions. The Sooners have won four in a row and just upset No. The line has dropped since its opening in favor of No. It is no shock to see Jay Wright guiding the Villanova basketball program to another great season on the main line.
Led by star point guard Collin Gillespie The ability of shooting guard Justin Moore Villanova will look to defeat their Big East rival Seton Hall for the second time this season. The Wildcats hung on for a win at the Finneran Pavilion back on January 19, but failed to cover as 8. The No. On the other side, Seton Hall is coming off a crushing loss to Creighton on Thursday - blowing a point second half lead.
The line has ticked up slightly since its opening in favor of No. They have a balanced scoring attack led by senior forward transfer Sam Hauser During their current seven-game winning streak Virginia has been profitable to back at the windows going against the spread ATS during that span. Virginia Tech heads in off an impressive road win at South Bend over Notre Dame covering as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday. The Hokies have won eight of their last 10 games, going an impressive ATS over that stretch.
Virginia Tech is led by junior forward Keve Aluma MLS avoided a work stoppage but pushed the start of its season back by two weeks and intends to have its teams participate in four extra competitions. Brady can afford to lose a Lombardi Trophy or two after winning ring No. New York Gov. The NBA released a statement about playing the national anthem at games after news broke that the Mavericks omitted it for 13 games.