This time around, though, the competition could be a lot tighter. Let us look at some of the best outrights and markets available on the latest Premier League season. City have made some signings in the summer to adequately strengthen the squad, but they have also been able to retain the core strength of the team. The key losses for Guardiola in the summer would be David Silva and Leroy Sane, but they are unlikely to impact the club much.
Both new signings — Ferran Torres and Nathan Ake — would be able to provide something new to the team. Liverpool were undisputed winners of the league title in the season. Yet, a summer of very little spending has seen the Reds not placed as a favourite by many bookmakers. Liverpool have a lot of winners in different areas of the pitch, but the squad strength looks a little weaker compared to the competition. Even if the Reds are the champions, the focus on other competitions could induce a slowdown.
The blues have spent big but most of the purchases have been on young individuals who are new to the Premier League. Even if Chelsea make a flying start, Premier League tips can see the team requiring some time to settle. If Chelsea make a disappointing start, it could make things worse for Lampard in the first few weeks of the campaign. Arsenal have made some interesting signings in the summer as the club looks to recover from a disastrous campaign.
Arsenal finished in the eighth place — a level never seen before in the last two decades. However, the Gunners have resisted the lure to perform a complete overhaul. There have been measured signings for Arsenal during the summer and the likes of Willian can be described as very prudent. Willian has the potential to be a game changer at Arsenal this season and it would be wrong to assume otherwise even with the Brazilian turning 32 recently.
This brings about an air of positivity, which had been missing so desperately, at Old Trafford. Unlike in recent summers when United have splurged on several players, there has been a measured approach from Solskjaer so far. Donny van de Beek is the only significant signing for United, as the Red Devils have gone for an approach that looks to build on the season finale. As the likes of Paul Pogba are increasingly likely to stay at the club this season, United should be considered in the frame.
After a second place finish in the Premier League back in the season, Tottenham have been slowly slipping away from the top echelons. The sixth-place finish last season is the worst for the team since the campaign. Jose Mourinho has responded by making a handful of signings. Fulham can be considered as one of the likely candidates to get relegated.
The London outfit returned back to the Premier League via the play-offs, which places them at a disadvantage. The disadvantage for teams promoted through play-offs is not a surprise, but this is amplified in the summer due to the shorter break between the two seasons. Scott Parker has been in charge of the team for almost 2 years. West Brom have been synonymous with the status of a yo-yo club, as the Midlanders have experienced relegation and promotion in two out of the last three seasons.
West Brom have been relegated immediately after getting promoted on four occasions since Even with an experienced manager like Slaven Bilic at the helm, West Brom may struggle. Grady Diangana and Matheus Pereira are the major signings for the Baggies. Villa have tried to address their biggest problem of last season — scoring goals — with the signing of Ollie Watkins, but it would take more than just one signing to turn around a squad that ended up scoring just 41 league goals from 38 games in the season.
Get all the latest relegation odds right here. Jamie Vardy was able to finish top of the goalscoring charts last season with 23 goals. However, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang deserves a great deal of attention with the Arsenal star coming a close second with 22 goals. Aubameyang may be out of contract at the end of the season, but he has been demonstrated his worth to the Gunners in every inch of the play. After starting the new campaign with goals in the Community Shield, Aubameyang has shown that he is unlikely to let the transfer rumours affect his performances.
Mohamed Salah came on the back of a mediocre campaign — by his high standards — with only 19 goals. Even if he starts with a flourish, there is likely to be a dip at least once of the season. This coupled with a strong competition for places through Tammy Abraham and Olivier Giroud makes it difficult for the year-old to win the Golden Boot. There will also be an opportunity to watch some of the games on Amazon Prime.
Yet, most convenient way of being able to watch Premier League games would be to use the live stream service provided by many bookmakers like Bet Often, the bookmakers do not impose any special restrictions to watch the content, as a funded account will be sufficient for access. Coral has one of the largest sportsbooks in the nation, and it offers a wealth of football betting markets throughout the season.
Genting Bet isn't often considered one of the top bookmakers in the nation, yet it is absolutely awesome when it comes to Premier League betting. With the Premier League already decided for , all eyes are now on the season. On the Coral website, you will see that Manchester City are currently the favourite to take home the trophy yet again, with odds of 2. Just like Coral above, Genting Bet has also listed Manchester City as the most likely team to lift the title in We still find this somewhat surprising given Liverpool's breathtaking dominance in the season.
To complete the hat-trick, Betfred has also listed Manchester City as prime contenders to emerge victorious in the season. Once again, Liverpool is a close second. The recent victory over Liverpool will no doubt play a part in making Manchester City the favourites for the Premier League. In addition to this, there is still the belief that Manchester City has a more well-rounded squad compared to Liverpool, and this will set them up for success in the following season.
Many had Sheffield United tipped to be relegated before the season, but look how that has turned out. Sheffield is one of the stronger top teams right now, and they certainly can hold their own against some of the very best in the Premier League. This may change significantly over several seasons but is unlikely to change much one season to the next.
As such, if we have information on where a team finished last year, we might expect to gain some predictive power from the information. Due to some discrepancies in notation and season availability, getting the information from this source and into a feature for our model involved a fair bit of data munging.
The league standings data also included other potentially useful information such as goals per game, shots on target per game and other statistics. To improve model performance these could always be added as features. While not always quite as intriguing as some of the newer and more advanced supervised learning algorithms, regression models still have a lot to offer. In the context of of classifying matches into 1 of multiple discrete targets win, draw or loss , logistic regression is a great place to start.
At the very least, it will give us a baseline to compare with more complicated models. Because our use case is trying to predict a single season worth of matches, the testing and training set will be manually assigned. The training set will be every season from —95 through — The testing set will be a single season, the —17 Premier League Season. The target is a variable with three classes, win, loss, or draw.
As we can see in the report above, wins and losses have fair precision and recall but draws seem to be much harder to predict. When thinking about the overarching goal of this project, we have to think about what element of classification is most important.
Because we would like to use our model to place bets, we want to be relatively certain that when the model predicts a result that it is correct. Therefore to achieve best performance, we need to optimize for high precision and necessarily can forget about recall. This being said, our first model has fairly poor precision. Perhaps if we bet in volume we could make money on wins and losses, but an improvement in precision would help dramatically.
As such, a Random Forest Classifier would seem a good next step. Without going into too much detail, however, the Random Forest Classifier performed worse than the Logistic Regression model. This is a poor trade-off for increased complexity. Also tried was a Support Vector Machine with similar results. Looking back at the classification report from the multinomial logistic regression model, we notice that draws are comparatively difficult to predict.
If we can merge two classes into 1, change the model to solve a binary classification problem, and increase precision we can up our potential profits. Merging the draw category into either losses or wins is simple enough, we just have to decide which results we ultimately want to bet on. Using the same procedures detailed above, training and evaluating a new model leads to the classification report below.
More importantly to our use case, the precision of the algorithm in predicting wins has gone up to 0. This represents a fair improvement from the 0. This increase in precision is worth the trade off in lost complexity. Again, recall is unimportant. When our model predicts a win, we want to be relatively confident that it has predicted correctly.
With a model precision of 0. Thankfully, football-data. They collect and maintain a massive dataset on betting odds from hundreds of different sources for each game in every Premier League season. This is an incredible resource and is specifically maintained for practicing and informing betting strategies.
Ideally, we would find the best individual odds for each game where our model predicts a win and only place bets with that company. However, with so many different companies and odds listed in the dataset, this is a massively complex task. Instead, we will use the odds supplied by the website Bet Without going into too many details, we will pull out the odds given for the full time result as supplied by Bet in decimal format for every team in the Premier League.
For example, if the given odds for a home team win are 1. No small chunk of change. How did the model perform? Probably not. When predicting soccer there is simply too much unpredictability. Or perhaps as more television revenue flows into the sport, past results will be less useful in predicting future games. However, with enough capital investment it does seem that with this betting strategy and model there is some success to be had.
Additionally, further improving the betting strategy could result in further earnings. Domain knowledge tells us that United are at a low ebb in their history and as such may not be performing as well as history would predict. Adjusting the probability threshold for classifying their results as wins could increase the precision of our predictions as far as United is concerned.
If nothing else, this has offered a fascinating case study into using domain knowledge to construct a relatively straightforward and interpretable model that can perform strongly with a narrowly defined use case. Thanks for reading!
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|Epl betting graph||Matt Przybyla in Towards Data Science. Bet on the Premier League at William Hill. This represents a fair improvement from the 0. This is a feature that intends to incorporate mentality and team confidence into the model. Roman Orac in Towards Data Science.|
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|Us open betting||This time around, though, the competition could be a lot tighter. Keeping Aubameyang has been their best deal so far this summer. Exact matches only. In recent years, one avenue exploited more and more has been shirt sponsorship. At the very least, it will give us a baseline to compare with more complicated models.|
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Visit operator for details. England Premier League Odds Sport. Odds Settings. Odds Type. Full Game. Online Sportsbooks. Las Vegas Casinos. American Odds. Decimal Odds. Fractional Odds. Saturday February Leicester City. Matchup Line History. Crystal Palace. Manchester City. Tottenham Hotspur. Aston Villa. Sunday February Wolverhampton Wanderers. West Bromwich Albion. Southampton all tasty clashes. If you, like me, love to dissect all the games and predict what the score will be and which team will win, I encourage you to get involved in the comments section below.
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Everton Fulham — Sunday, 2 p. West Brom Man United — Sunday, 9 a. Chelsea Newcastle — Monday, 3 p. Brighton Aston Villa — Saturday, 3 p. Crystal Palace Burnley — Saturday, 10 a.
Brighton - Aston Villa. Tottenham the headline event, plus. West Ham - Sheffield Utd. Monday February West Ham United. If you, like me, love betting fans, the moneyline provides a popular form of wagering will be and which team will win, I encourage you to get involved in the. Aston Villa - Leicester. Everton - Manchester City. Liverpool and Wolves v. Fulham - Sheffield Utd. PARAGRAPHCrystal Palace - Burnley.Compare Premier League odds & betting lines Feb 05, to find the best Soccer moneyline and Over/Under totals odds from online sportsbooks. The graphs below are generated by averaging the odds from multiple sources and will be updated throughout the year. Current Premier League Odds & Favorites. The graphs below are generated by averaging the odds from multiple sources and will be updated throughout the /21 season. EPL.