Want to chat? Gambler's Anonymous Contact Information. Welcome to Reddit, the front page of the internet. Become a Redditor and join one of thousands of communities. Want to add to the discussion? Post a comment! Create an account. Have to empty it out and what not. For a couple of bucks it's very worth it. Combat Sports Weekly. Contrarian strategies are not new. This is primarily due to the fact that by the time a heavy consensus is formed, there is more value in the dog, and less in the chalk.
Some of the brightest minds in sports betting came up with the Carolina Anyone who has bet on sports successfully, over a significant period of time, will tell you that they bet more dogs than favorites. No way. The majority of "public" bettors, tend to bet the favorite and the over. After all, we all love to root for a winner and lots of points. Since the books know this, they shade those lines.
So taking the favorite or the over, is always going to be less value when compared to the "true" line. However, if you handicap your own games, and feel confident in an o40 play, then you should take it. If you want to consistently beat the book, there is only one way to do it. Spend the time researching, watching, studying or formulating a model that exploits weaknesses in the lines using predictive modeling.
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I follow the team but i dont bet like a homer and still thought it was a gift. Teams like the steelers, titans, vikings, ravens are all teams i like to tease , especially through key numbers. As apposed to teams like Saints, bucs, LAR , etc that have sexy offenses but questionable defensive efforts and can implode if they get a few wrong bounces go against them on offense and it seems like even teasing through key numbers wont save you.
I love teasers but the only problem is you end up spending a lot more to actually make some sort of profit. Which is great - nothing wrong with slow and steady gains. And typically, the point of a teaser is to land on or get beyond key numbers 3, 7, 10, 14, etc. Which means, you win with either team winning as long as Buffalo doesn't win by more than 3. You win, regardless of which team wins as long as Seattle doesn't win by more than 9.
See how you have that extra leeway with the margin of victory between 3 and 9? That's a lot better than being pigeon-holed into a specific outcome. I understand your thought process, Buffalo had looked shitty for weeks and Seattle was sharp except vs Arizona. But remember, not all "-3" spreads are created equal. There's more psychology behind the numbers than you may realize. If I stopped to ask myself I made an impulse, chase bet after having lost the UFC main event the night before , what's more likely between a high scoring game and a Seattle win?
Seattle has the worst D in the league or very close to it and Buffalo can score especially when the resistance is not good. If you have multiple books too, look at what the odds r for teasers on all of them. Look for the total touchdowns bet. It's usually set at 5. Condensed games are a good way to watch a lot of plays in a short amount of time.
Defensive matchups along with injury reports, especially to defenders, I believe play a huge part in the NFL. Focus on the trenches as well. I'll also add, don't over do analysis on all the teams. It's impossible to know every team. Get to know a few teams really well, both strengths and weaknesses.
And have a feel on several teams. Learn your limits and take teams you just can't get a grasp off any possible bet. Offensive and defensive lines. Is the offensive line consistently getting a push on early downs and protecting on 3rd and long?
Is the D-line getting to the quarterback and creating pressure especially up the middle? Ex: if a bad d-line is playing the Titans or another run-heavy team, bad news for them. There are things like pressure rates, sacks, and opponent yards per carry, but a more modern stat to use is percentage of opponent plays that grade successfully on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down. I agree heavily on this one, how many peoples parlays got burned due to chiefs not covering or the Seahawks and buccaneers losing outright last night?
All heavy favourites and all lost. I had them all and they all took down key bets for me. Gotta start finding the under the radar picks I like and doing single bets. But any serious money is going to single bets. I feel this, I hit one 6 leg parlay last year for bucks off of ten and I've been chasing it since. But it hasn't really panned out well. I think I should try that for next week.
Welcome to Reddit, the front page of the internet. Become a Redditor and join one of thousands of communities. Haha any advice would be helpful I was doing really well with nba , I think I have a better sense of players and matchups there. Edit: thanks everyone for the responses and tips BOL to us all for the remainder of the season! Want to add to the discussion? Post a comment! Create an account. Football is a rock-paper-scissors low sample size shit show where anyone can beat anyone.
That being said, there are some things I like to look at to try and help me out. These of course aren't blanket statements , and there are tons of other factors to weigh in when making a wager and every situation differs, Sorry for the rant, and I really hope this was comprehensible Good luck and bet responsibly. Are you saying teams score in garbage time to cover? Im new ish to NFL so this helps. Thank you! Make a parlay of spreads and or totals, then tease 6, 6.
Pray a lot. On a bad week only 2 out of 3 hit lol. Edit: typo. Brain thought FD but typed DK instead. The closer you can get down to one number, the better. I've been on the fence with doing it gunna try it out. An elite lineman can completely change the game. He was out for an entire drive for 0 reason. Combat Sports Weekly. Models and Statistics Monthly. Podcasts Monthly. Smart money bets early on the dog shifting the line towards the favorite which makes betting a favorite favorable.
Public comes in late and bets on the favorite shifting the line towards the dog making betting the dog more favorable. You're just wrong about when smart money comes in. Most smart bets are placed early when the lines come out, which then shifts things towards the favorite and it never really recovers.
If it doesn't, you can expect the smarts are more confident than the public. Either way, this is your chance to bet the dog because you've gotten more points back either way. But I guess I don't understand why the sharps would be in a hurry to pound the dog early. Wouldn't the public naturally be more inclined to bet the favorite just by virtue of ignorance or too much bias in favor of the better team or whatever Wouldn't the sharps only try to pound a line if they thought it was going to move away from their favor?
Why wouldn't they wait until the last second after the public has bet on the favorite to get their bets in. I get that it makes sense to bet on whatever your pick is while the line is most beneficial lol. Just wondering how you know when the smart money comes in. Is this just from your experience or is there evidence that supports that the sharps bet on the dogs early in the week?
Thanks for the reply. Smart money doesn't use line movement. The smart money has extensive modeling, and when they see the lines that give them an ROI, they bet them. Easy as that. They just get in early because that is what they do and its easier when you have Tue-Thu to worry about whatever other games you bet on. Also, remember "The Public" is not a single entity.
Their money comes in steadily over the time the bets come in and peaks closer to Sunday. The sharps you can think of more as an entity as there are fewer who are betting much more actual money. So while it might take tons of tickets from the public for vegas to even think about moving the line, a couple hundred sharps can all drop massive bets and move it instantly. Lol yea man I know how line movement works just doesn't really make sense to me what you're saying.
Let the public put all their money in on Friday and Saturday and then bet after them once the public money has shifted the line even more in favor of the dog, and then lock down the smart bet lol. Public money is equally capable of creating line movement. Less money per bet but way more bettors lol. I just have a hard time buying that they wouldn't wait out the public to make their move first to lock down a better bet because it's more convenient to just do it earlier in the week and worry about other shit lol.
The line wouldn't shift towards the favorite if the smarts didnt bet early. You don't have to buy it. Its true whether you believe it or not. If you let the public bet on the favorite all week long, how would the line not shift in favor of the dog? They want to get relatively even money right, or at least enough to where losses wouldn't be exceptional if the favorite did pull it out? If the vast majority of money goes in on the favorite throughout the week, the line would shift, no?
So why wouldn't the sharps let the public do their thing, let the line shift even more in their favor to maximize their potential returns, and then bet. You saying it's true without any evidence isn't very convincing lol. But seeing your post history you seem like an easily agitated dude that doesn't like to give empirical evidence so I'm not expecting much. I just answered a question, and you have decided that you don't like the answer.
I don't care about you in the slightest. You can take my information Im sharing or not. Doesn't validate or invalidate it at all. You're arguing with facts because you decided they didn't feel right to you. But, feels before reals, I guess. Good luck feeling your way around.
Makes absolutely no difference to me. I've battled this to a point where I just said fuck it. I bet everything early. If the line moves with me then great I beat the market. If the line moves against me, then I'm probably on the wrong side anyway.
That's how I feel about it. Lol I like this. Right now I normally make my bets on Thursday or Friday for the weekend. But based on what everyone is saying, it doesn't seem like a science, just rules of thumb. Even then you never really know why the line is moving.
Betting on sports is easy when you use an online sportsbook like this one. With multiple betting options, live wagering and numerous sports available to bet on, this is a sportsbook not to be missed. Any of the sportsbooks from our above list are ideal for betting on NBA games. When it comes to withdrawing your winnings, most sites will let you use the same method you used to fund your account.
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Sportsbooks see how valuable their customers are and want to give back. Most betting sites give a Welcome Bonus, which matches a certain amount of your initial deposit up to a specified percentage. Make sure to read the terms and conditions before accepting rewards. Every betting site has different stipulations that need to be met in order to claim a free bet or bonus.
If something should go wrong with your betting account, you want to know that the sportsbook has a great client services team to help you out. NBA odds at your sportsbook of choice will be offered American style , Decimal type 1. At Odds Shark, we use American odds. Moneyline bets are simple because you need to select which team you believe will win the game straight up SU. Odds would look something like this:. This is universal across all betting sites. Underdogs provide the most value but are less likely to win the game, according to the oddsmaker — these are the professionals that set the betting lines.
Favorites are not as lucrative as underdogs but have a better chance to win in the eyes of the sportsbook. Essentially, the Lakers are spotted 3. The Warriors are given a disadvantage of 3. For LA to cover, they would need to win the game outright or lose by no more than 4 points.
For Golden State to cover, they would need to win by 4 points or more. Betting totals is another awesome option for NBA wagering. The oddsmakers will select a total number based on how they think the game will pan out. Props are bets on events that may or may not occur without affecting the outcome of the game. These bets can involve entire teams or individual player milestones such as:.
What makes a parlay bet risky is that all selections must win in order for you to get a payout. Our Parlay Calculator will show you what your potential payout will be based on the odds. You can also include bets from other sports or leagues on your parlay ticket. This type of bet allows you to adjust the spread or totals line in your favor to minimize the associated risk.
Depending on how you think the game will play out, you can adjust the lines by 4 to 6 points. Teasers are similar to parlay bets in that all wagers must be correct in order to receive a payout. Unlike a traditional wager before the game begins, a live wager lets you place a bet while watching the match unfold. In-play betting lets you bet as the game is going on. This is great if the favorite has a slow start or if the underdog is giving their all and leading at the end of the first quarter.
Futures are bets on an outcome that will happen at a later date. NBA futures odds for the championship would look something like this:. Please try to keep all discussions under the daily threads. Selling of picks is not allowed here and will be removed by the moderators. If you have any suggestions for improvements, I'm all ears. Reply here, or use the Help thing on the side of the site. Every once in a while, I find some interesting things a few I mentioned in the other post.
For example, the Dolphins have been terrible at home against the spread since Why would that be? Absolutely man, I'm impressed with how quick it is but If I could perhaps suggest something that might be cool-. You know how you can type in a teams name and get their history and betting info? What if you had a 2nd identical box underneath that was grayed out until you opted to use it, and you could type in a 2nd teams name and then see just those 2 teams past 1-???
You know? But other then that keep up the good work! Just do a search for a team, then when looking at all the results, I'd turn the opposing team names into links. When you click on those, it would filter down the results to just games against that opponent. With arguably a more high powered offense this year, I think I know what my money's going on. This site is really helpful btw, thanks! It's just a tool for people who want to do a little research and see all the results in one place.
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